European energy fundamentals pointed to softer near-term EUA demand this week as gas markets continued to ease. TTF prices fell to an 18-month low in the low €28s, driven by warm weather forecasts that are expected to break the effects of the recent polar vortex. Analysts noted that Italy’s gas prices could still spike on stronger Austrian and German demand, and broader EU gas markets remain vulnerable to winter volatility, though industrial consumption continues to weaken as Europe’s chemical sector contracts. A new report warned that the EU’s rapid push into biogas could risk a longer fossil-fuel lock-in, adding uncertainty to the bloc’s longer-term emissions trajectory.

Geopolitical developments remained active but had limited immediate impact on EUA pricing. Zelensky and Macron were set to meet for peace discussions, while NATO foreign ministers convened in Brussels to assess the situation in Ukraine. In parallel, Oman announced a green hydrogen partnership with the EU, reinforcing long-term decarbonisation efforts that may gradually reduce power-sector EUA demand. Overall, mild weather, weak industrial gas use and depressed TTF prices lean bearish for near-term EUAs, while structural hydrogen and renewables partnerships continue to support a tighter long-run carbon market.

Auction volume: 11.5 million EUAs, 2.2 less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 75.8% full on November 29th
• Italy gas prices may spike on Austria, Germany demand – analysts
• EU gas may still spike this winter on lingering risk – analysts say
• EU’s rush to scale up biogas could risk fossil fuel lock-in, says report
• Europe’s chemical decline threatens industrial gas demand
• Oman announces green hydrogen partnership with EU during Green Hydrogen Summit
• Zelensky and Macron to meet today to discuss peace
• NATO foreign ministry meets Wednesday in Brussels to discuss Ukraine War
• Warm weather to come to Europe in the coming weeks, breaking the Polar Vortex
• TTF Prices Fall Further to 18-Month Low (low 28s today)

Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net long position to +101.04m EUAs on November 21stth (vs. +101.97m EUAs on November 14th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -29.57m EUAs (vs  -29.65m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 130.62m EUAs (vs. 131.62m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 82.98
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 82.91
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 73.02
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 78.53

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

Price is grinding higher toward the upper Bollinger Band around 83.1, with the bands slowly widening and signaling expaning momentum while mid-band (20-MA) trends upwards as reliable dynamic support. All major moving averages; 20, 50 and 100 Day, are rising cleanly in a bullish stack, with price holding comfortably above both the 50-MA (~71.2) and 100-MA (~70.8), reinforcing a solid underlying trend structure. RSI sits around 62.9, showing firm but not overstretched momentum, leaving room for either continuation or a brief cooldown. Meanwhile, CCI at 163.8 highlights strong bullish pressure, though it’s entering a zone where short-term pullbacks can emerge if things get overheated. The MACD remains positive as well, though its slope is flattening slightly, indicating that while bulls still have control, momentum isn’t aggressively accelerating.

Trend structure retains a mildly bullish undertone, with clean MA alignment and price pressing the upper Bollinger region. But indicators like RSI and CCI suggest things are getting warm, so a short breather or slow grind is just as possible as a continuation breakout. Momentum is there, but it’s not without its potential cooling zones.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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