Geopolitical and energy developments shaped near-term sentiment for EUAs this week. The US and Ukraine agreed on an updated peace framework, while von der Leyen outlined red lines in response to the US plan. Erdogan and Putin were set to speak on parallel peace efforts, keeping risks elevated. European gas margins reached an 18-month high due to lost Russian supplies, which could drive fuel switching toward coal and support EUA demand, while the polar vortex may further influence winter emissions.

Structural policy and decarbonisation signals continue to influence the EU ETS outlook. The Cruise Lines International Association called for accessible sustainable maritime fuels, and COP30 addressed global compliance markets. Germany secured a wind turbine order, and Greece approved solar and green hydrogen expansions, supporting long-term clean energy growth. Discussions on the EU-US trade deal may align carbon policies further. Overall, short-term EUA prices are sensitive to gas and weather, while long-term market tightening is supported by structural investments and policy momentum..

Auction volume: 13.7 million EUAs, 2.2 less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 98.3% full on November 22nd
• Ukraine and US agree upon updated peace framework to uphold Ukraine's sovereignty
• Von der Leyen outlined red lines in response to US’s proposed peace plan
• Erdogan and Putin to speak today regarding peace efforts in Ukraine
• European gas margins for fuels have risen to their highest in 18 months due to loss of Russian energy sources
• Cruise Line International Association (CLIA) calls for accessible sustainable maritime fuels
• Africa's first G20 in Johannesburg persisted despite US no show
• EU and US to discuss applying trade deal closed in July
• Germany secures wind turbine order, as wind power set to increase
• Greece approved expanding solar power green hydrogen
• COP30 wrapped up, touching on global opt-in compliance markets
• Polar vortex could impact Europe this winter
  

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +101.97m EUAs on November 14th (vs. +96.53m EUAs on November 7th).
• Gross short positions increased to -29.65m EUAs (vs  -26.9m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 131.62m EUAs (vs. 124.44m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 80.02
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 79.92
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 72.83
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 79.2
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

EUAs are drifting sideways after posting a recent high near €82.61, with the Dec-25 contract now trading around €80.38. The market continues to trade above its key moving averages, with the 20-day MA (€78.56) and 50-day MA (€73.96) offering initial support, while the 100-day EMA (~€76.09) underpins the broader trend. Bollinger Bands remain relatively expanded, and prices are still occupying the upper portion of the range, reflecting a cooling phase after the sharp climb earlier in the month.

Momentum signals have eased but remain broadly supportive. The RSI near 61 indicates steady, moderate buying strength, and the MACD (€0.57) stays positive even as it flattens, hinting at slower upward follow-through. Meanwhile, the CCI (-9) has slipped back toward neutral, suggesting the market has worked off earlier overbought pressure. Overall, the tone remains constructively bullish while prices stay above the shorter-term averages, with a period of consolidation between €79.50 and €82.00 looking likely as the market waits for fresh direction.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

AFS ENERGY B.V.

The information contained in the AFS Energy EU ETS Report, hereinafter Report, has been compiled or arrived from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, correct sequencing or correctness.

AFS Energy B.V. does not accept any liability, contingent otherwise for (i) the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness of any information provided in the Report, (ii) any decision made, or action taken by you in reliance upon any of them and (iii) any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of the Report. AFS Energy B.V. does not make any representation or warranty about the suitability of the information in the Report.

The information contained in the Report is published for the assistance of the recipient but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient.