European climate policy developments provided a broadly supportive backdrop for EUAs this week, with multiple initiatives pointing toward tighter long-term carbon governance. The EU’s backing of a global carbon market alliance, alongside more countries joining the emerging carbon pricing coalition, strengthens expectations for more coordinated international pricing signals, reducing leakage risks and improving confidence in the ETS framework. Leaked drafts on CBAM price-setting and verification also suggest progress toward a more robust border mechanism, which could reinforce EUA demand once fully aligned with ETS rules. Meanwhile, MEPs’ push for a legally binding 90% emissions-reduction target for 2040 signals a more ambitious trajectory for cap tightening, while the greenlight to begin negotiations on linking the EU and UK ETS could, over time, expand market liquidity and support price stability. Overall, policy momentum continues to lean structurally bullish for EUAs, even if timelines remain politically sensitive.

Short-term fundamentals, however, were driven more by winter energy dynamics. Turkey’s potential role as an LNG gateway for Eastern Europe and Greece’s commitment to supply gas to Ukraine point to improved regional resilience, which could temper near-term EUA demand from the power sector if gas prices remain contained. Nevertheless, the arrival of Arctic air in parts of Europe may boost heating demand and lend some support to power-sector emissions in the weeks ahead. Traders remain focused on how quickly colder weather materializes, but with structural policies firming and carbon-pricing cooperation expanding, the medium-term outlook for EUAs remains skewed to the upside.

Auction volume: 11.5 million EUAs, 2.2 less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 82% full on November 15th
• Turkey could be LNG gateway for east Europe
• More countries join carbon market coalition
• CBAM price method, verification drafts leaked
• EU 2040 climate target: MEPs want 90% emissions reduction in EU climate law
• EU-UK relations: Council greenlights negotiations on agri-food deal and linking emissions trading systems
• European govts back carbon pricing in possible fossil fuel transition roadmap
• EU backs global carbon market alliance to crack down on CO2 emissions
• Greece to supply winter gas to Ukraine
• Croatia braces for snow as Arctic cold reaches Europe this week

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +97.54m EUAs on November 7th (vs. +96.53m EUAs on October 31st).
• Gross short positions increased to -26.9m EUAs (vs  -28.58m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 124.44m EUAs (vs. 125.11m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 80.47
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €80.31
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 72.66
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 78.991

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

EUAs continue to stabilise after the recent peak around €82.66, with the December 2025 contract now trading near €80.50. The price remains above all major moving averages, with the 20-day MA (€78.50) and 50-day MA (€78.42) acting as the first layers of dynamic support. The 100-day MA (€75.14) continues to serve as firm medium-term structural support. Bollinger Bands remain relatively wide, while the price is holding in the upper part of the range but showing a mild pullback, typical behaviour after a strong upward move as the market cools off. Momentum indicators remain mostly positive. The RSI at 57.09 signals healthy but not excessive buying pressure. The MACD at 0.86 stays in positive territory and above its signal line, aligning with the underlying bullish structure. The CCI at 68.39 also points to a mildly bullish bias without indicating overheating.

The market retains a cautiously bullish undertone, as long as price tendency holds above the 20- and 50-day MAs. A consolidation phase between €79.50 and €82.00 looks plausible before a clearer direction develops. Bulls still have the structural advantage, but without a decisive breakout, the scenario remains open to interpretation.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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