The market opened this week with a softer tone as European gas prices dipped amid unseasonably warm weather, easing short-term demand pressures. Despite the mild conditions, natural gas prices found partial support from near-record flows to LNG export plants, which boosted overall consumption. On the oil side, prices gained modestly on optimism surrounding a potential reopening of the US government, while former President Trump finalized a Gulf oil lease sale and proposed another in Alaska for 2026, moves that signal a continued focus on expanding US fossil fuel output.

At COP30, the EU joined China and the UK in backing Brazil’s initiative to form a global carbon pricing coalition, marking a rare moment of alignment among major emitters. Meanwhile, EU policymakers formally agreed on their 2040 emissions reduction and updated NDC goals but opted to delay the implementation of ETS 2 by one year, from 2027 to 2028, to ease the transition for households and industry. The combination of warmer weather, strong LNG exports, and policy adjustments has kept market sentiment steady but cautious, with traders watching whether winter forecasts or renewed political momentum might drive the next price swing.

Auction volume: 13.66 million EUAs, 2.16 more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 82.7% full on November 17th
• European Gas Prices Dip As Warm Weather Cools Demand
• COP30: EU, China, UK back Brazil-led carbon pricing coalition
• Trump finalizes US Gulf oil lease sale, proposes Alaska sale in 2026
• Oil gains on hopes US government to reopen soon
• Natural gas climbed as near-record flows to LNG export plants boosted demand
• EU states agree 2040 and NDC goals, seek ETS 2 delay

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +96.53m EUAs on October 31st (vs. +93.89m EUAs on October 24th).
• Gross short positions increased to -28.58m EUAs (vs  -27.99m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 125.11m EUAs (vs. 121.88m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 80.06
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €79.89
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 72.476
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 78.671

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

EUAs have regained moderate bullish tendency after rebounding from support around €79.26. The December 2025 contract is trading near €80.07, holding comfortably above the 20-day moving average (€78.36) and the 50-day MA (€77.85). The 100-day MA at €74.63 continues to act as a strong structural support level, maintaining the broader upward bias. Momentum indicators suggest mild strength returning to the market. The RSI at 55.38 points indicates steady buying momentum without entering overbought territory. The MACD at 0.81 remains in positive territory, indicating a bullish crossover, while the CCI at 52.86 reinforces the upward bias and suggests price stability above the moving averages.

The overall tone remains moderately bullish, with momentum indicators supporting a potential continuation higher as long as prices stay above the €78.00 region. However, some consolidation near the upper band is possible before a clearer breakout toward €82.00–€83.00 can form.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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