The market opened this week with mixed signals as geopolitical developments and shifting energy fundamentals pulled sentiment in opposing directions. European gas storage levels remain healthy at 82.8% as of October 25th, yet traders are eyeing colder weather patterns that could introduce short-term volatility. Despite the seasonal shift, some analysts suggest natural gas prices may turn bearish given robust inventories and steady LNG inflows, including Greece’s move to secure additional US deliveries as it continues to pivot away from Russian supply. Meanwhile, oil prices edged higher following reports of renewed tariff discussions between China and the US over rare earth materials, underscoring how trade dynamics remain closely intertwined with energy market sentiment.

Broader geopolitical tensions also resurfaced as former President Trump met with China’s Xi Jinping to continue trade talks, while Russia’s test of a nuclear-powered missile prompted a firmer response from the US. In the policy arena, the EU pushed for a 90% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target by 2040 ahead of COP30, reaffirming its long-term climate ambitions despite near-term market uncertainty. Overall, sentiment remains cautiously balanced: strong storage levels and trade negotiations temper immediate price pressures, while geopolitical risks and evolving policy signals continue to inject a layer of unpredictability into carbon and energy markets. All in all, most likely markets are looking like they are balencing and willing to drop before continuing the rise.

Auction volume: 13.7 million EUAs, 2.2 more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 82.8% full on October 25th
• Natural gas prices may become bearish amidst colder weather
• Oil prices rise in response to rare earths tariff talks between China and the US
• Moving away from Russian gas, Greece looks to US for LNG deliveries
• Trump meets with Xi this week as trade talks continue
• EU advocates for cutting GHG emissions 90% by 2040 before COP30
• Russia tests nuclear-powered missile, provoking the US to take a tougher stance against Russia
• European Gas Prices Fall on Signs of Comfortable Supply
• Wave of LNG supply to change rules of market, IEA chief says

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +94.72m EUAs on October 17th (vs. +90.83m EUAs on October 10th).
• Gross short positions increased to -28.25m EUAs (vs  -28.88m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 122.97m EUAs (vs. 119.70m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €77.39
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €77.14
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 72.144
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 78.241

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

EUAs have pulled back slightly after testing the upper Bollinger Band near €79.50, currently trading around €77.66. The short-term picture shows a pause in bullish momentum as prices hover just below the 20-day moving average (€78.12), while the 50-day MA (€76.34) provides near-term support. The 100-day MA at €74.09 remains a key structural level within the broader uptrend. Momentum indicators show mild consolidation: the RSI sits at 48.88, reflecting neutral momentum, while the MACD at 0.58 is flattening, hinting at a potential slowdown in buying pressure. The CCI at -42.09 confirms short-term cooling after the recent rally. From a Fibonacci perspective, support is aligned around the 38.2% retracement level near €76.00, with stronger support at the 50% level around €74.00. Resistance remains near the recent high at €80.56, followed by the 61.8% extension near €81.00.

The overall trend retains an indicatively bullish undertone, but momentum has softened. A break below the €76.00–€74.00 zone could open room for deeper correction, while holding above this area would provide the possibility for the path to open toward €80.00 and beyond.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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