The market opened this week under renewed geopolitical tension, with sentiment shaped by a mix of weather concerns and shifting policy signals. Growing worries over a stronger winter are beginning to support prices, while former President Trump’s vow to maintain “massive” tariffs on India until it halts Russian oil imports added to global trade uncertainty. A Ukrainian drone strike forced a major Russian gas plant to suspend intake from Kazakhstan, highlighting ongoing supply vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, China’s fossil-fuel power output fell 5.4% year-on-year in September, signaling potential softness in global demand.

In Europe, political developments continue to dominate direction. EU energy ministers appear close to an agreement to ban Russian gas by 2027, though Hungary’s opposition could still delay progress. At the same time, the UN shipping agency’s decision to postpone implementing a global carbon price has tempered expectations for coordinated climate action. Overall, sentiment remains cautious: weaker Asian demand exerts downward pressure, while geopolitical risks and winter weather forecasts provide a counterbalance. EUAs are likely to remain rangebound between €77–€80, with a potential tilt upward should colder conditions or stronger policy momentum materialize.

Auction volume: 11.5 million EUAs, 2.16 less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 82.8% full on October 18th
• Trump vows to keep 'massive' tariffs on India until Russian oil imports cease
• Will EU energy ministers strengthen the Russian ban or let Hungary doom it?
• Worries for a stronger winter are growing
• China's fossil-fuelled power output falls 5.4% in September
• Giant Russian gas plant suspends intake from Kazakhstan after Ukrainian drone strike
• UN shipping agency delays decision on carbon price under US pressure
• EU Nations Close In on Deal to Ban Russian Gas by End of 2027

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +90.83m EUAs on October 3rd (vs. +85.67m EUAs on October 3rd).
• Gross short positions increased to -28.88m EUAs (vs  -27.42m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 119.70m EUAs (vs. 113.10m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 79.03
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 78.74
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 71.985
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 78.263

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

Last week’s double top pattern broke below the key level at 78.10, but the price failed to extend the move lower, suggesting that bulls remained too strong to surrender their long positions. It’s likely that stop-loss orders are clustered around the 75.00 level, which could trigger a sell-off if reached.

This week, based on the FSI, we may see a sudden change in direction, most likely a downward retracement, while both MACD and RSI remain neutral to bullish. From a technical perspective, 78.00 continues to act as a strong support, and a decisive break below it could open the path toward 75.00, with the 100-day moving average (MA100) positioned near 73.8.

On the upside, a break above the 80.00 resistance — which has capped gains in recent weeks — could trigger a move toward the 85.00 level.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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