The market opened this week with uncertainty, largely driven by TACO-related trades following conflicting statements from former President Trump — initially suggesting higher tariffs on China, then later downplaying their impact. From a fundamental perspective, sentiment leans slightly bearish; however, weather forecasts and long-term supply constraints introduce competing upward pressures.

A key question remains whether EUAs will trade based on short-term fundamentals or long-term structural factors. For now, prices are likely to remain within the €77–€80 range, though potential breakouts cannot be ruled out amid shifting geopolitical developments.

Auction volume: 13.66 million EUAs, 1.37 more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 83% full on October 11th
• A new cold phase is here
• First hostages handed over by Hamas
• European Union exports to the United States fell, opens new tab by 4.4% from the prior year in July because of tariffs
• Oil recoups some losses as investors focus on US-China trade talks
• China's September oil imports rise 3.9% on year, drop 4.5% from August
• TAP pipeline sees decline in natural gas orders from European exit points
• Europe’s Natural Gas Futures Draw Record Open Interest
• Ukraine and Russia’s intensifying energy war brings gas shortages and economic pain
• Europe’s Natural Gas Futures Draw Record Open Interest

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +85.67m EUAs on October 3rd (vs. +76.24m EUAs on September 19th).
• Gross short positions stayed almost flat at -27.42m EUAs (vs  -27.07m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 113.10m EUAs (vs. 103.31m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 78.93
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 78.60
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 71.84
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 78.13

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

Following Friday’s lower close, EUAs have begun to form a potential Double Top pattern — a development that could signal a bearish reversal in the market. Although today’s higher opening has delayed confirmation of this formation, the daily close will be crucial to validate the pattern.

The neckline currently lies around €78, serving as a key support level. If this support holds, prices could quickly retest the €80 area, with potential upside toward €84. Conversely, a decisive break below €78 would expose the next support levels at €77.50, and subsequently €75.25.

The MACD indicates that bullish momentum is weakening, while the RSI, currently at 81.74, suggests the market is technically overbought — raising the likelihood of a short-term pullback or consolidation.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

AFS ENERGY B.V.

The information contained in the AFS Energy EU ETS Report, hereinafter Report, has been compiled or arrived from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, correct sequencing or correctness.

AFS Energy B.V. does not accept any liability, contingent otherwise for (i) the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness of any information provided in the Report, (ii) any decision made, or action taken by you in reliance upon any of them and (iii) any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of the Report. AFS Energy B.V. does not make any representation or warranty about the suitability of the information in the Report.

The information contained in the Report is published for the assistance of the recipient but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient.