Gas storage stands at 82.1% as of September 25th, providing a solid buffer ahead of winter and easing near-term supply concerns. Still, forecasts for a colder 2025/2026 winter keep demand risks alive, adding a potential bullish undertone. Bearish drivers stem from oversupply signals, with natural gas prices briefly falling below zero and Norwegian pipeline flows returning. Softer oil prices also weigh on cross-commodity support. On the upside, compliance demand, policy disputes over Italy’s gas scheme, and geopolitical frictions sustain uncertainty.

Outlook: The short-term bias leans slightly bearish given ample storage and supply, but colder winter expectations and political tensions could limit downside. Overall, risks remain balanced, leaving room for two-way volatility.

Auction volume: 13.66 million EUAs, 2.16 more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 82.1% full on September 25th
• Industry, traders urge EC to stop Italy’s gas discount scheme
• ‘THE WORST SEPTEMBER’: Natural Gas Prices Fall Below Zero, Forcing Production closures
• Russia plans to launch Sakhalin-3 gas production in 2028
• Gas stations' price war ushers in new fuels market situation in Estonia
• Oil prices slip as Kurdistan resumes crude exports
• The gradual end of Norway’s North Sea maintenance season is finally lifting pipeline flows
• Predictions for the winter 2025/2026 are showing lower temperatures

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +78.05m EUAs on September 19th (vs. +68.88m EUAs on September 12th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -29.58m EUAs (vs  -31.4m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 107.62m EUAs (vs. 100.29m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 75.73
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 75.35
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 71.53
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 75.72
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

The EUAs December 2025 contract is currently trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at €75.20, slightly below both the EMA (€75.71) and the mid-Bollinger band (€76.24). The MACD stands at 0.7, FSI at 6.78, and RSI at 49.9, indicating that the market retains scope for further downside movement toward the lower Bollinger band, currently at €74.20.

Additionally, the narrowing of the Bollinger channel signals the potential for an imminent price breakout. On the downside, such a move could drive the price toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at €72.20. Conversely, an upside breakout would first require a move above the mid-Bollinger level, followed by a break of the upper Bollinger band at €78.21. If these levels are surpassed, the price could then test the key psychological level of €80.00.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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