The fundamental picture leans bullish going into late September. Gas storage is comfortable at 81.2%, but the arrival of a cold wave in Western Europe could possibly lift short-term power demand and, by extension, EUA consumption. Policy remains structurally supportive, with Brussels allocating €100m in ETS allowances to help airlines invest in Sustainable Aviation Fuels — reinforcing the tightening trajectory of the system. Geopolitical risks persist, as NATO responds to Russian airspace violations, possibly pertaining to the risk premium in the market. On the broader energy side, the EIA’s projection of falling oil and gas prices is showing mildly bearish, but slowing momentum in nuclear development after record 2024 output indicates medium-term reliance on fossil fuels remains intact, underpinning EUA demand. With EUA options expiring on September 24th — where open interest is concentrated in the €75–€80 calls — and the September 30th compliance deadline approaching, both hedging flows and compliance buying could be strong indicators of additional upside support.

Outlook: Overall, the balance of risks indicates a more bullish tendency, with weather, compliance, option expir and positioning drivers outweighing softer energy price forecasts.

Auction volume: 11.495 million EUAs, 2.17 less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 81.2% full on September 18th
• EU allocates €100m-worth of ETS allowances to help airlines buy Sustainable Aviation Fuels
• EIA Predicts Sharp Drop in Oil and Gas Prices Amid Rising Energy Demand
• Global nuclear projects seen slowing after record 2024 output
• A significant cold wave spreads into western Europe
• NATO to discuss Russian airspace violation on Tuesday
• EUA options are expiring 24/09/2025 with the biggest OI on Calls split between 75 and 80  strike
• Compliance period is September 30th, 2025

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +68.88m EUAs on September 12th (vs. +54.2m EUAs on September 5th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -31.4m EUAs (vs  -32.17m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 100.29m EUAs (vs. 86.37m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 77.18
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 76.76
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 71.41
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 75.71

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUAs still have room to advance toward 79.31 on the December 2025 contract, corresponding to the upper Bollinger Band. However, there is also potential for a pullback toward 75.75, where the mid-Bollinger Band, EMA, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement all converge — a level previously highlighted. A deeper decline could push prices toward the 72.00 area, while on the upside, the next major resistance is at 84.50, which marks the high of the year recorded on January 30.

Other indicators paint a mixed picture: the MACD appears to be losing momentum, the FSI is showing reduced volatility, and the RSI is approaching reversal territory. Taken together, these signals suggest a technically neutral outlook with the potential for range-bound trading and price swings.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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