Gas storage at 79.2% (Sept 6th) provides comfort ahead of winter, a factor that can limit immediate upside in EUA prices (bearish undertone). At the same time, the geopolitical backdrop is increasingly tense: Russia’s largest air assault on Ukraine, upcoming war games on NATO’s eastern flank, and the prospect of new EU and U.S. sanctions on Russian banks and oil trade raise the risk premium for energy markets (bullish undertone). Additionally, Brussels preparing an ETS2 review underlines ongoing policy tightening, reinforcing the structural demand for allowances. With the upcoming compliance period, we can see the volumes are also overall picking up. All in all, looking ahead for this week, once of the possible outcomes for EUAs is to go higher, with the possibility of reaching 80EUR by the end of this week.

Auction volume: 11.49 million EUAs, 2.18 lower than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 79.2% full on September 6th
• NATO’s eastern flank braces for Russia’s war games
• Russia pounds Ukraine with largest air attack, hits key government building
• Trump floats new sanctions after Russia’s largest air assault on Ukraine
• Brussels preparing ETS2 ‘analysis’ in response to EU member state pressure
• EU weighs new sanctions on Russia to hit banks and oil trade

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +31.75m EUAs on August 29th (vs. +25.80m EUAs on August 22th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -36.14m EUAs (vs  -37.83m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 67.98m EUAs (vs. 63.64m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 76.17
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 75.66
• YTD Spot EUA Price: 71.126€
• MTD Spot EUA Price: 72.274 €

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUAs are extending their bullish momentum after breaking through recent consolidation. The RSI is trending higher but not yet in overbought territory, leaving room for further gains, while the MACD at 1.03 confirms strengthening positive momentum. The CCI is firmly above 100, reinforcing the bullish bias.

The December 2025 contract is currently trading near €76.03, testing the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands. The next resistance level stands at €76.75, with a breakout potentially opening the path toward the €80.00 psychological level.

On the downside, initial support is seen at €72.81 (Fibonacci 50%), followed by €71.54 (20-day MA). A deeper pullback could bring the €69.60 zone into play, though buying interest is likely to emerge before this level.Overall, the technical outlook indicates a strong upward trend, with momentum building and room for further upside, though minor corrective moves cannot be excluded along the way.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

AFS ENERGY B.V.

The information contained in the AFS Energy EU ETS Report, hereinafter Report, has been compiled or arrived from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, correct sequencing or correctness.

AFS Energy B.V. does not accept any liability, contingent otherwise for (i) the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness of any information provided in the Report, (ii) any decision made, or action taken by you in reliance upon any of them and (iii) any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of the Report. AFS Energy B.V. does not make any representation or warranty about the suitability of the information in the Report.

The information contained in the Report is published for the assistance of the recipient but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient.