European gas storage stands at 77.3% as of August 30th, indicating strong supply ahead of winter and creating mild downward pressure on EUA prices unless industrial demand improves. Oil markets remain range-bound as rising global output offsets Russian supply disruptions, while geopolitical developments continue to inject volatility. At the SCO Summit, India’s Modi called for an end to the Ukraine-Russia war, and China’s Xi warned against a “Cold War mentality,” yet no concrete resolutions have emerged. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s escalating campaign against wind energy could slow renewable expansion in the U.S., potentially sustaining fossil fuel demand and supporting EUA pricing. Adding further uncertainty, a U.S. appeals court has ruled Trump’s global tariffs illegal, triggering a Supreme Court review, a decision that may influence transatlantic trade dynamics and, indirectly, industrial emissions trends.

Overall, EUA sentiment appears cautiously bullish, driven by geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainty, and slower renewable deployment. However, strong energy supply levels and soft demand temper the upside, keeping short-term volatility elevated.

Auction volume: 13.67 million EUAs, 2.33 higher than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 77.3% full on August 30th
• EU Gas Demand Still Set to Fall as Canada Touts LNG Exports to Germany in ‘as Little as Five Years
• India's Modi encourages end of Ukraine-Russia war at SCO Regional Summit in China, which Putin is also attending
• China’s Xi urges regional leaders to oppose ‘Cold War mentality’ at summit
• Oil holds in tight range as rising output offsets Russia supply disruptions
• The Trump Administration’s Campaign Against Renewable Wind Reaches a New Phase
• Trump's global tariffs are ruled illegal by US appeals court, catalyzing a Supreme Court investigation
• Compliance period is at the end of this month

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +25.80m EUAs on August 22th (vs. +20.21m EUAs on August 15th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -37.83m EUAs (vs  -39.86m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 63.64m EUAs (vs. 60.07m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 73.63
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 73.08
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 71.03
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 71.22

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUAs are gradually shifting into bullish territory. The RSI is approaching overbought levels, the FSI has turned positive, and the MACD at 0.38 suggests a potential change in momentum.

The December 2025 contract is currently trading near the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands at 73.53. The next resistance level is at 75.15 (Fibonacci 61.8%), with a potential breakout opening the path toward 76.75 and possibly the 80.00 level.

On the downside, initial support lies at 72.25 (Fibonacci 50%), followed by a strong support zone between 72.00 and 71.00.

Overall, the technical outlook indicates a steady upward trend with the likelihood of minor pullbacks along the way.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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