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AFS Energy EU ETS Report Week 33 2025

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Author
Valentina Stekovic
Publication Date
August 11, 2025
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EUA volatility remains elevated as the week begins, with peace negotiations unfolding worldwide and the US playing a central role. The upcoming US–Russia talks in Alaska this Friday could prove pivotal. If no ceasefire is reached, Washington may pressure Russia’s oil buyers, potentially pushing EUA prices higher. Ukraine, backed by NATO and the EU, will also join the discussions. Until Friday’s peace talks, we are likely to see neutral market movement.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Ukraine with oil and energy, regardless of the talks’ outcome. Over the weekend, the US brokered a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with Turkey endorsing the agreement to secure a regional transit corridor. Given the success of the Azerbaijan–Armenia peace deal, market sentiment leans bullish. However, the ultimate direction will depend heavily on the results of the ongoing US–Russia–Ukraine negotiations, which could also trigger a bearish shift. Until Friday, we are likely to see neutral movement in the market.

Auction volume: 11.34 million EUAs, 2.05 less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

Investment Funds

  • Investment funds increased their net long position to +20.75m EUAs on August 1st (vs. +17.03m EUAs on July 25th).
  • Gross short positions decreased to -38.57m EUAs (vs  -40.7m EUAs).
  • Gross long positions increased to 59.31m EUAs (vs. 57.73m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

  • Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 72.77
  • Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 72.13
  • YTD Spot EUA Price: € 71.00
  • MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 70.93

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

The EUAs remain largely in neutral territory. Both the RSI and MACD indicators are showing neutral signals, while the FSI is beginning to suggest a gradual downward bias—potentially targeting the 50-day moving average (MA50) at 71.99, followed by the mid-Bollinger Band at 71.28.

The current December contract price, around 72.70, is near the upper Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level could open the path toward the 0% Fibonacci retracement at 76.80, though such a move would require a recovery in trading volume to be sustainable.

From a purely technical perspective, EUAs could trade within the 73.50–70.00 range this week, with possible brief dips toward 69.50 amid short-lived volatility.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

AFS ENERGY B.V.

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