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AFS Energy EU ETS Report Week 32 2025

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Author
Valentina Stekovic
Publication Date
August 4, 2025
Ship in the ocean
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Given the interplay between geopolitical risk and shifting energy fundamentals, EUA (EU Emissions Allowance) pricing remains subject to heightened volatility. On one hand, escalating geopolitical uncertainty, particularly involving major energy players, could lend upward momentum to EUA prices as market participants anticipate potential disruptions or regulatory tightening. On the other hand, increased natural gas supply and relatively mild storage pressures may exert a counterbalancing, bearish influence.In light of these developments, EUA prices may exhibit a neutral to bearish movement, though this remains contingent on the unfolding political landscape and market reactions to supply-side normalization. As always, these observations do not constitute financial advice but rather represent a hypothesis based on current market signals.

Auction volume: 13.42 million EUAs, equal to last week

Energy Fundamentals

Investment Funds

  • Investment funds reduced their net long position to +17.03m EUAs on July 30th (vs. +14.95m EUAs on July 18th).
  • Gross short positions increased to -40.7m EUAs (vs  -38.47m EUAs).
  • Gross long positions decreased to 57.73m EUAs (vs. 53.43m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

  • Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 70.35
  • Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 69.69
  • YTD Spot EUA Price: € 71.00
  • MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 70.27

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

The technical outlook for EUAs remains largely unchanged from the previous week. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around €70.45 continues to provide support, reinforced by the 100-day moving average (MA100), which sits just a few cents below.

Momentum indicators such as the MACD and RSI remain in neutral territory, suggesting the market is awaiting a clearer directional move. A sustained increase in trading volume throughout the week will be essential to confirm any breakout or breakdown. Currently, only the FSI points to a neutral-to-bearish sentiment, but again, confirmation via volume is key.

In the near term, EUAs are likely to trade within a range defined by the lower Bollinger Band at €68.94 and the upper band at €72.87. To test the upper boundary, prices must first overcome a series of resistance levels: the mid-Bollinger Band at €70.91, the EMA at €71.28, and the 50-day moving average (MA50) at €71.91.

On the downside, a break below the MA100 could lead to a test of the psychological support at €70 and could head towards 69 levels.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

AFS ENERGY B.V.

The information contained in the AFS Energy EU ETS Report, hereinafter Report, has been compiled or arrived from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, correct sequencing or correctness.

AFS Energy B.V. does not accept any liability, contingent otherwise for (i) the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness of any information provided in the Report, (ii) any decision made, or action taken by you in reliance upon any of them and (iii) any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of the Report. AFS Energy B.V. does not make any representation or warranty about the suitability of the information in the Report.

The information contained in the Report is published for the assistance of the recipient but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient.