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Given the interplay between geopolitical risk and shifting energy fundamentals, EUA (EU Emissions Allowance) pricing remains subject to heightened volatility. On one hand, escalating geopolitical uncertainty, particularly involving major energy players, could lend upward momentum to EUA prices as market participants anticipate potential disruptions or regulatory tightening. On the other hand, increased natural gas supply and relatively mild storage pressures may exert a counterbalancing, bearish influence.In light of these developments, EUA prices may exhibit a neutral to bearish movement, though this remains contingent on the unfolding political landscape and market reactions to supply-side normalization. As always, these observations do not constitute financial advice but rather represent a hypothesis based on current market signals.
Auction volume: 13.42 million EUAs, equal to last week
Energy Fundamentals
- Gas storage sits at 69.2% full on August 2nd.
- The Flamanville-3 nuclear reactor is suffering further delays as EDF announced an "End-of-Autumn" full ramp up of operations
- US Gas Prices Tumble as Signs of Production Growth Emerge
- Trump repositioned US Nuclear Subs after Russian official’s ‘highly provocative’ remarks
- Steve Witkoff will travel to Russia, Trump affirms plans for new sanctions on Moscow
- Norway reopens natural gas facility after maintenance work for more than three months
- Global stocks rose on Monday, boosted by the prospect of lower interest rates
- Most stock markets in the Gulf were muted in early trade on Monday on weak corporate earnings
- Oil little changed after OPEC+ proceeds with September output hike
Investment Funds
- Investment funds reduced their net long position to +17.03m EUAs on July 30th (vs. +14.95m EUAs on July 18th).
- Gross short positions increased to -40.7m EUAs (vs -38.47m EUAs).
- Gross long positions decreased to 57.73m EUAs (vs. 53.43m EUAs).
Market Prices:
- Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 70.35
- Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 69.69
- YTD Spot EUA Price: € 71.00
- MTD Spot EUA Price: € 70.27
Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis
The technical outlook for EUAs remains largely unchanged from the previous week. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around €70.45 continues to provide support, reinforced by the 100-day moving average (MA100), which sits just a few cents below.
Momentum indicators such as the MACD and RSI remain in neutral territory, suggesting the market is awaiting a clearer directional move. A sustained increase in trading volume throughout the week will be essential to confirm any breakout or breakdown. Currently, only the FSI points to a neutral-to-bearish sentiment, but again, confirmation via volume is key.
In the near term, EUAs are likely to trade within a range defined by the lower Bollinger Band at €68.94 and the upper band at €72.87. To test the upper boundary, prices must first overcome a series of resistance levels: the mid-Bollinger Band at €70.91, the EMA at €71.28, and the 50-day moving average (MA50) at €71.91.
On the downside, a break below the MA100 could lead to a test of the psychological support at €70 and could head towards 69 levels.
Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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