This week, a new trade agreement between the EU and the US was reached, establishing a 15% tariff and outlining a deal for the EU to purchase US power, military equipment, and energy resources. Oil prices have risen in response to the deal. Meanwhile, installed solar capacity in the EU has declined compared to the previous year, prompting policymakers to propose the inclusion of nuclear power in the bloc’s 2028–2030 budget framework. In Eastern Europe, Ukraine has signed a gas agreement with Azerbaijan’s SOCAR, with deliveries planned via the Transbalkan route. These developments, occurring amid changing energy strategies and geopolitical shifts that bring both bullish and bearish signals, may keep the market range-bound until higher volumes drive a breakout.

Auction volume: 11.34 million EUAs, 2.05 less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 67,0% full on July 26th.
• So far only 3 quarters of Free allocations are distributed for September 2025 compliance period, leaving around 120 mio still in the pipeline to be given
• In the following days, we could expect EEX posting a new Auction calendar for 2026
• The EU and the US reached a trade agreement this weekend, with a 15% tariff applied to most goods exported by the former.
• SolarPower Europe is forecasting a 64.2 GW of installed solar capacity in the EU for 2025, down 1.4% from the 65.1 GW installed in 2024.
• The EU proposed the inclusion of nuclear power in its 2028-2030 budget proposal, reversing a previous ban.
• Ukraine signs its first Transbalkan gas deal with the Azerbaijani state-owned company SOCAR.
• Oil prices rise on EU-US trade deal optimism.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +14.95m EUAs on July 18th (vs. +15.06m EUAs on July 11th).
• Gross short positions increased to -38.47m EUAs (vs  -36.07m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 53.43m EUAs (vs. 51.13m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: € 71.12
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: € 70.45
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 70.94
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 69.73
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

Based on the raw data and the chart, the EUA DEC25 contract has been trading since 26/06 within a channel bounded by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at €69.36 and the 50% level at €72.20. Typically, such a formation could signal an upward breakout toward the 61.8% retracement level, currently near €75.
However, this outlook should be viewed cautiously. Volume, MACD, and RSI indicators do not yet support a strong bullish move, instead suggesting continued sideways action in the near term.

The Bollinger Bands are relatively narrow, indicating that a breakout may be imminent. For a sustained bullish trend, the price would first need to close above €72.20. Conversely, a drop below €69.36 could trigger a full retracement toward the €66 level.

Before reaching €66, several support areas could slow or halt the decline, including:

• The mid-Bollinger line near €70.90, which aligns closely with the exponential moving average (EMA),
• The triple support zone around €69.36 (formed by the lower Bollinger Band, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the lower boundary of the current channel).

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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