Previous Week Events:

Last week, Dec25 EUA prices settled 0.9% lower on Friday, marking an overall decline of 0.9%. Dec25 trading volumes experienced light selling pressure, as the slow pace of summer seasonality continues.

Looking ahead, U.S. tariffs imposed on the EU—and the possibility of EU retaliation—remain influential, with no common ground having been reached so far. In addition, the EU has introduced a new set of sanctions on Russia in a revised package, including a cap on Russian oil prices far below market levels, which is expected to impact European energy markets accordingly. However, at the European level, gas prices remain low due to ample supply. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 41st month, President Zelensky has proposed a new round of peace negotiations for next week, signalling a potential de-escalation. Given the ongoing market uncertainty around tariffs, low trading volumes, and continued developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Dec25 EUA prices might continue to experience significant volatility over the coming week.

Auction volume: 13.4 million EUAs, 2.1 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 647% full on July 19th.
• The EU is preparing for retaliation against the US tariffs, as no deal is currently in sight.
• Zelensky proposes new peace talks with Russia for next week.
• The EU imposed an additional, unprecedented sanctions package on Russia, capping the price of the latter’s oil exports to 15% below market price.
• European gas prices hold near two-week low, as supply remains robust.
• Iran will hold nuclear talks with Germany, the UK and France on Friday.
• Oil declines as the market focuses on the EUs sanctions on Russia and ongoing trade talks with the US.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +15.06m EUAs on July 11th (vs. +18.96m EUAs on June 20th).
• Gross short positions increased to -36.07m EUAs (vs  -33.84m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 51.13m EUAs (vs. 52.80m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €70.30
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €69.61
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €71.046
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €70.185

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the price is currently trading just above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 70.36 €. It is also trading above the MA100 at 70.07 €, but below the MA20 at 70.93 € and the MA50 at 72.14 €. If the price moves upward, the MA20, which coincides with the middle of the Bollinger Bands, both at 70.93 €, could represent an important resistance. If it moves beyond this, the next key level to watch is the Fibonacci 23.6% level at 72.84 €. If the price moves downwards, the first important support is the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 70.36 €, followed by the MA100 at 70.07 € and the 70 € psychological level. With the MACD and RSI in a neutral zone, and the CCI just above oversold territory, there is a possible scenario that the price moves in a sideways-bearish direction before it starts moving upwards again.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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