Previous Week Events:

The Dec25 EUA contract settled lower by 0.19% on Friday, adding to a total weekly loss of 1.6%. Average volume for the week was 19.2 Mt, down 12% compared to the previous week.

For this week, there is a chance that the Dec25 EUA contract might trade in a sideways range, with the market awaiting new developments on tariffs and the potential imposition of further sanctions on Russia. Traders are closely watching for news regarding a new set of US sanctions on Russia and a potential trade deal between the EU and the US. Additionally, market volumes are expected to remain low, as is typical during the summer months. Overall, the market appears to be in wait-and-see mode, highlighted by its sideways movement, unless significant news emerges to shift its direction.

Auction volume: 11.3 million EUAs, 2.1 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 62.6% full on July 12th.
• Trump threatens the EU and Mexico with 30% tariffs on goods.
• Trump says he will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
• China exports are picking up after Trump’s tariff deadline approaches.
• Macron announces plan to accelerate military spending.
• Trump says ‘major’ announcement on Russia will come today, possibly hinting at new sanctions.
• Oil edges up on the possibility of new sanctions on Russia.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +18.96m EUAs on July 4th (vs. +15.58m EUAs on June 27th).
• Gross short positions slightly decreased to -33.84m EUAs (vs  -35.11m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 52.8m EUAs (vs. 50.70m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €71.28
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €70.55
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €71.085
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €70.29

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the EUA Dec25 contract is currently trading just above its Fibonacci 38.2% level at 70.39 €, also trading above its MA100 at 70.15 €, but below its MA50 at 72.17 € and MA20 at 71.69 €. The MACD is slightly oversold, though there is a chance it could decrease further, adding negative momentum to the market. The RSI is in neutral territory, and the CCI sits just above the oversold level, signalling a potential move upwards and presenting mixed signals overall. If the price moves downwards, the lower Bollinger Band at 68.72 € will act as support, followed by the 50% Fibonacci level at 68.42 €. On the upside, the MA20, MA50, and the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 72.82 € will serve as key resistance levels.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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