Previous Week Events:

On Friday, the Dec 25 EUA prices settled 0.8% higher, but ultimately registered a weekly decline of 2.8%. Correlation with Dutch TTF was again broken, which continued to drop through Friday.  

For the week ahead, there is a possibility that the focus moves towards progress on trade deals with the US, as the 9th of July deadline is rapidly approaching. Furthermore, with heatwaves expected around Europe, energy consumption is expected to be high as demand for AC ramps up, which could potentially strengthen market momentum for the week. On the other hand, we are seeing a drop across the board in energy markets, as risk premium is fading as tensions have eased in the middle east. Taking these reasons into account, there is a possible scenario that the market trades in a sideways to bullish range for this week

Auction volume: 11.3 million EUAs, 2.1 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 58.5% full on June 29th.
• The EU seeks to reach a trade deal with the US, Mertz and Macron are calling for urgency.
• The EU suggests that a 10% baseline tariff with the US would trigger retaliation.
• Russia continues to attack Ukraine in one of the largest strikes since the beginning of the war three years ago.
• European Gas posts largest weekly drop in two years as supply risk eases.
• Oil prices have dropped as risk premium recedes following easing tensions in the Middle East.
• Greece is battling with wildfires as heatwave expands.
• Summer heat waves are in full swing, which is likely to stress the European power grid this week.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +23.02m EUAs on June 20th (vs. +28.07m EUAs on June 13th).
• Gross short positions slightly decreased to -37.26m EUAs (vs -38.59m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 60.28m EUAs (vs.66.66m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €70.30
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €69.49
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €71.17
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €72.32

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA price is currently trading just above its Fibonacci 38.2% level at €70.42. It is trading below its MA 20 at €70.30, MA 50 at €71.28 and MA 100 at €70.88, and it is trading around the lower level of the Bollinger Bands at €70.30. The MACD seems to still be descending from overbought levels, which possibly signals potential for a further decrease. However, the CCI and RSI are both at overbought levels, suggesting that the price could start rising. Due to the mixed technical signals, the price for now looks sideways until a decision is made for a future direction. If the price decreases further, an important level to watch is the 50% Fibonacci level at €69.45. In case the price moves towards the upside, the moving averages will act as resistances, alongside the 23.6% Fibonacci level at €72.86.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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