Previous Week Events:

On Friday, Dec 25, EUA prices settled 0.3% higher, despite a 3.9% decline over the week. This continued a trend of decoupling from Dutch TTF prices, which rose by 8%.

In the coming week, the market may react sharply to any new developments in the conflict involving Israel, the US, and Iran, as these could significantly influence the global energy market. Additionally, an upcoming NATO summit in The Hague is expected to address member states’ defense spending and reaffirm Europe's position amid the Israel-Iran tensions. Similarly, the EU experienced a decline in renewable energy output in early 2025, increasing reliance on fossil fuels, which could potentially add upward momentum to the EUA market.

Auction volume: 13.4 million EUAs, 3.3 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 56.1% full on June 22nd.
• The US struck three nuclear facilities in Iran, becoming directly involved in the Israel-Iran conflict.
• Iran vows retaliation for the US strikes, as violence between them and Israel continues.
• Reports say Iran might close the strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact the global energy market.
• Europe’s LNG supply might be seriously impacted, if the Israel-Iran conflict escalates further.
• NATO allies are meeting in the Hague on the 24th and 25th of June, where they will likely commit to raising defense spending.
• In the EU, the share of electricity from renewable sources drops in early 2025, compared to 2024.
• The oil market is steady, as it weighs the risks from the Iran-Israel conflict.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +28.07m EUAs on June 13thth (vs. +22.66m EUAs on June 6th).
• Gross short positions stayed almost the same at -38.59m EUAs (vs -38.13m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 66.66m EUAs (vs.60.79m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €72.91
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €72.04
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €71.171
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €72.757

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading above its 50% Fibonacci level at €72.23, as well as above its MA100 at €71.34 and MA50 at €70.76. It is trading around the middle of the Bollinger Bands and its MA20, both at €73.24. The MACD is just below its overbought level, with the RSI and CCI indicating a reversal from neutral territory and a potential movement toward overbought levels again. If the price moves upward, the €73.24 level is a key resistance point, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci level at €75.12. If the price continues to decline, the MA50 at €70.76, the lower end of the Bollinger Bands at €70.20, and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at €69.35 are key levels to watch.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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