Previous Week Events:

Last Friday, the Dec25 EUA contract registered a 0.43% drop on the day, bringing the week's total gain to 3.3%. This movement aligned with broader global energy markets, all of which surged following the announcement of a possible US – China trade deal and the escalation of the Israel–Iran conflict in the Middle East.

Looking ahead, market volatility may persist, as the G7 meeting—taking place between the 15th and 17th of June—could result in new sanctions against Russia. At the same time, the potential for further escalation in the Israel–Iran conflict remains. Should either of these risks materialize, the market might continue on its upward trajectory. Conversely, if tensions ease or proposed sanctions fail to pass, a downward correction may follow. As a result, there is a possibility that the market could respond sharply to this week’s key headlines, with potentially abrupt price movements.

Auction volume: 11.34 million, 2.18 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 53.7% full on June 15th.
• Hostilities between Israel and Iran are expanding, as the conflict enters its fourth day.
• The EU will request firms to display details of existing Russian gas contracts.
• New sanctions on Russia to be discussed at the G7 conference between 15 - 17 June.
• Hungary and Slovakia are preparing to veto the EU’s new sanctions package for Russia.
• The EU wants to cut the Russian oil price cap to 45$ in a new sanctions package.
• The EU Commission will assess nuclear investment needs in order to reach its 2025 decarbonization goals.
• European Gas prices have been rising, as the extensive Middle East tensions are being priced in.
• Oil market extends gains as the Iran - Israel conflict sparks supply fears.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +22.66m EUAs on June 6th (vs. +16.92mm EUAs on May 30th).
• Gross short positions slightly decreased to  -38.14m EUAs (vs -40.09m  EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 60.79m EUAs (vs. 57.82m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €75.74
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €74.79
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €71.085
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €72.559

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical point of view, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading just above its Fibonacci 38% level at €75.23. It is also trading above its MA 20 at €73, MA 50 at €69.67, and MA 100 at €71.75. It is also trading just below the top of the Bollinger Bands at €76.09. Additionally, the MACD, CCI, and RSI are all in overbought territory. Under these conditions, there is a possibility that a price retracement occurs; the first key support level to watch is the 38% Fibonacci at €75.23, with the next being the MA 20 and the middle of the Bollinger Bands, both currently sitting at €73. If the price continues to move upwards, it will first break the upper point of the Bollinger Bands at €76.09, after which it might move towards €77 and the 100% Fibonacci level at €84.62.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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