Previous Week Events:

In the previous week, Dec25 EUA prices rose to their highest level in three weeks, closing 1% higher on Friday and gaining 4% over the week. With stronger upward momentum, EUAs slightly decoupled from their typical correlation with Dutch TTF.

For the week ahead, the market may initially trade within a sideways range and could react strongly to any new developments in the US–China trade discussions. Additionally, rising tensions in Ukraine and forecasts of extreme heat might support the upward momentum for EUA prices. On the other hand, the EU’s accelerated pace of gas storage refilling introduces some downward pressure. Overall, the market might remain range-bound until the US–China trade talks conclude, at which point a clearer directional move may emerge.

Auction volume: 9.16 million EUAs, 2.65 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 51.4% full on June 8th.
• The US and China are holding new trade talks in London today.
• Russia launched the largest overnight drone attack on Ukraine, as prisoner exchange begins.
• NATO chief Mark Rutte proposed to raise spending on defense for member countries to 3.5% of GDP, arguing that Russia could attack a NATO member in 5 years.
• NATO chief Mark Rutte also calls for a 400% increase in air and missile defense.
• Poland says the EU won’t turn to China, even if trade talks with the US failed.
• Severe storms are expected to end and give way to intense heat as the week unfolds.
• Oil holds steady ahead of the conclusion of the US - China trade talks.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +16.92m EUAs on May 17th (vs. +17.86m EUAs on May 23th).
• Gross short positions stayed almost the same at -40.09m EUAs (vs -40.16m EUAs).
• Gross long positions slightly decreased to 57.82m EUAs (vs.58.02m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €73.55
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €72.66
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €70.972
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €71.53
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading above the 50% Fibonacci level at €73.18, right below the top of the Bollinger Bands at €74.63. It is also trading above their MA 20 at €72.33, MA 50 at €69.03 and MA 100 at €71.95. The MACD, RSI and CCI have all started declining from overbought territory, which could signal a continuation of a move downwards. If that happens, a key level to watch is the 50% Fibonacci level at €73.18, followed by the moving averages and, ultimately, the 38.2% Fibonacci level at €69.54. In case the price moves upward, the €75.02 psychological level, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci level at €75.33, could become significant points of resistance. Furthermore, the market seems to be moving in line with an upward trend line, so it is possible that a break below that might also support a downwards move.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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