Previous Week Events:

On Friday, markets saw a notable price drop following comments from Donald Trump announcing a 50% tariff on EU imports starting in June. This news sparked a brief afternoon selloff, contributing to an overall 5% volatility for the week.

Looking ahead, the upcoming week shows signs of renewed optimism. The proposed tariffs have been postponed to July, and with ongoing issues in Norwegian gas supply and a smaller volume auction on the horizon, bullish sentiment may start to build. Fundamentally, these developments appear to align with the current technical indicators.

Auction volume: 6.49  million EUAs, 4.87 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 46.2% full on May 25th.
• Trump delays tariffs until 9th of July on EU
• Oil edges up after Trump extends EU trade talks deadline to July
• Norwegian gas supplies to the EU are down as the largest gas field in the country’s offshore suffers a power failure
• US considers more sanctions on Moscow
• Egypt in talks to buy 40-60 LNG cargoes amid energy crunch
• Soft China dampens Asia LNG demand while Europe's imports ease
• Global Natural gas prices are having a stable upward trend in 2025

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +16.83m EUAs on May 17th (vs. +9.1m EUAs on May 9th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -40.83m EUAs (vs -48.2m EUAs).
• Gross long positions slightly increased to 57.66m EUAs (vs.  57.3m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €73.32
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €72.33
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €70.96
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €70.00

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

Technical outlook for the week remains mixed. The MACD suggests a potential short-term pullback, while the FSI has crossed over—indicating that bullish momentum may soon return. December 2025 EUA contracts are currently trading within the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone, with the upward trend from early April still holding. The upper Bollinger Band sits at €75.60, about €0.60 above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Overall, the technical setup suggests there’s still some room for EUAs to climb before potentially retesting the €70 range.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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