Previous Week Events:

Last Friday, EUA prices settled 3.3% lower on the day, but ended the week 0.9% higher. On the same day, EUA prices experienced significant volatility, in a move that seems to have broken correlation with Dutch TTF.

For this week, there is a possible scenario that EUA prices could react strongly to any new EU-UK developments in the climate sector and possible advancements on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, we see multiple EU countries shifting towards nuclear energy as a solution to ease the transition to renewables, which could also add some downwards pressure to the market. However, Ukraine and Russia fail to reach a ceasefire, and if new sanctions are imposed on the latter, it is possible that the price might continue to advance. For this reason, there is a chance that the market will be in a wait and see mode, moving sideways until new developments can confirm its direction.

Auction volume: 11.34 million EUAs, 4.31 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 44.8% full on May 18th.
• Donald Trump is expected to discuss a potential ceasefire directly with Vladimir Putin today.
• The EU is preparing a new packet of sanctions on Russia, targeting the latter’s energy and financial sectors.
• The EU and the UK are meeting at a bilateral summit today, with hopes for a post-Brexit reset of joint policy across key areas, including re-coupling the EU and UK ETS.
• Germany’s new environment minister promises a new climate action plan to keep the country on track for reaching its climate targets.
• The EU moves to simplify CBAM rules and to implement a minimum threshold of 50 tonnes.
• Denmark is considering removing  a 40-year ban on nuclear energy generation.
• Belgium scraps its nuclear energy phaseout plan, following a European-wide policy shift.
• Oil prices decrease on worries over China’s growth.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +9.06m EUAs on May 9th (vs. +7.52m EUAs on May 2nd).
• Gross short positions decreased to -48.16m EUAs (vs -51.76m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to +57.23m EUAs (vs. +59.28m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €71.15
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €70.14
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €70.95
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €69.59
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA contract dropped below its 100% Fibonacci level at €74.24, after briefly moving above it on Thursday. Prices are currently trading above their 20-day moving average (MA20) at €69.05 and 50-day moving average (MA50) at €68.38, but remain just below the 100-day moving average (MA100) at €72.47. The MACD is still indicating overbought conditions, while the RSI and CCI have dipped slightly below their previous overbought levels. This setup suggests a potential for further downside in EUA prices, with the middle of the Bollinger Bands at €69.05 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at €68.60 acting as key support levels. Further pressure could also be driven by the price exiting the upward channel that had formed throughout May. However, if the price resumes its upward movement, the MA100 at €72.47 and the 100% Fibonacci level at €74.24 may serve as significant resistance levels.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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