Previous Week Events:

Last Friday, EUA prices settled 0.5% lower on the day but ended the week 2.4% higher. The decline on Friday may be attributed to profit-taking ahead of the US-China talks that took place over the weekend.

For the upcoming, there seems to be significant positive momentum in the market. The US and China reported meaningful progress toward a trade deal, which lifted prices across energy markets. Subsequently, President Zelensky offered to meet with Vladimir Putin for peace talks in Istanbul, which could be a significant step toward ending the conflict in Ukraine. This might bring significant volatility into the market, depending on the nature of the talks. For these reasons, there is a chance EUAs may trade in a sideways to bullish range this week, supported by the prevailing positive sentiment in the market.

Auction volume: 15,65 million EUAs, 4.31 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 42.5% full on May 10th.
• The US and China are set to announce the progress they made on a  trade deal later today.
• Zelensky offers to meet Putin in person on Thursday, for high-level peace talks.
• The EU Battery Storage capacity reaches 21.9 GWh in 2024, marking a 15% year over year expansion.
• The EU threatens Russia with new sanctions if the latter does not agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
• This April was the second warmest on record, as global warming accelerates.
• Dutch TTF prices rise on warmer weather outlook and US-China talks.
• Oil prices rise on US-China possible trade deal.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +7.52m EUAs on May 2nd (vs. +2.66m EUAs on April 25th).
• Gross short positions slightly increased to -51.76m EUAs (vs -51.01m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to +59.28m EUAs (vs. +53.66m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €72.31
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €71.26
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €70.925
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €68.205
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA price is just below its 50.0% level at €72.21. The price is currently trading just below its MA 100 at €72.28, and above its MA 50 at €67.97 and MA 20 at €67.43. It is also trading above the higher end of the Bollinger Bands at €71.81. The MACD has entered overbought territory, but the setup shows that there is potentially some more room for an upward movement. The same is shown by the RSI, which is in overbought territory but appears to have room to move further up. The CCI, however, is in overbought territory and signals a potential downside move. If the price moves past the 50.0% Fibonacci level at €72.21, the next level of resistance is the 61.8% Fibonacci level at €75.12. In case the price starts decreasing, it could possibly target the 38.2% Fibonacci level at €69.31.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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