Previous Week Events:

On Friday, we saw a significant price increase after a week of sideways trading, with the Dec25 EUA contract posting a daily gain of 2.6% and a weekly increase of 3.5%. The contract settled at 68.86 EUR, the highest settlement price in five weeks.

For this week, there is a possible scenario that EUA prices might continue trading in a sideways to bullish range, as there is a colder than expected weather forecast for Europe, followed by an increased pressure for the EU to cut all Russian gas imports. This could further be supported by the gas purchases that will now regularly be made in order to fill in the EU gas reserve for the winter. What is more, there is a chance EUAs might continue to react strongly to developments on the Russia Ukraine war and a potential US-EU trade deal.

Auction volume: 11.34 million EUAs, 2.78 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 41.2% full on May 4th.
• Zelenksy says a ceasefire with Russia is possible ‘at any moment’.
• Vladimir Putin states that Russia has the means to bring the Ukraine war to its ‘logical conclusion’.
• The EU is planning to cut all its remaining imports of Russian gas, but its legal opinions remain limited.
• The EU will present US Negotiators with a trade offer this week, Bloomberg reports.
• European gas prices rise on potential US-China trade talks.
• Nordic power front-quarter prices reach one-month high on a colder than expected weather outlook.
• Oil prices fall as OPEC+ agrees to an unexpected output increase.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +2.66m EUAs on April 25th (vs. +3.28m EUAs on April 17th).
• Gross short positions stayed the same at -51.01m EUAs (vs -51.03m EUAs).
• Gross long positions slightly decreased to 53.66m EUAs (vs.  54.32m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €68.25
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €67.25
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €71.05
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €64.49
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical point of view, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading below its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at €69.37. It is above its 20-day moving average at €65.45 and its 50-day moving average at €68.15 but remains below the 100-day moving average at €72.08. The price is also below the upper Bollinger Band at €69.44 but above the midpoint at €65.40. The next important support level is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at €66.75. On the upside, a move above €69.37 could possibly support further gains. The MACD remains in negative territory but is moving upwards, which could support continued bullish momentum. However, with both the RSI and CCI in oversold territory, there is still a risk of renewed downside pressure toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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