Previous Week Events:

In the previous week, on Friday, the Dec25 EUA contract posted a weekly increase of about 1.8%, after settling relatively flat for the day. It broke correlation with Dutch TTF, which dropped for the week on comfortable LNG supply, reducing demand for gas storage.

For this week, there is a possible scenario where EUAs react strongly to the EU making progress on a plan to completely phase out Russian fossil fuels, alongside new developments on the lowering of the EU pre-winter gas storage requirements. Furthermore, the market could also react strongly to developments regarding US tariffs and trade deals, alongside peace developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For this reason, there is a possible scenario that the price could move in a sideways to bearish range,  in expectation of further developments to confirm its direction.

Auction volume: 8.56 million EUAs, 1.1 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 38.4% full on April 27th.
• US tariffs on China might lead to a supply shock for the US economy.
• The EU aims to present a roadmap in May for the complete phasing out of Russian fossil fuels.
• The European Parliament’s energy committee backs a cut to the block’s pre-winter gas storage targets.
• A Trump administration official called for a more permissive climate policy at a n energy summit in London.
• North Korea confirms it sent troops to fight for Russia.
• China exempts some US goods from its tariffs, but denies having discussed about a deal with the US
• Donald Trump states that Russia and Ukraine are ‘very close to a deal’.
• Oil edges higher, with trades focusing on China’s outlook and its ongoing trade war with the US.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +3.28m EUAs on April 17th (vs. +1.65m EUAs on April 11th).
• Gross short positions increased to -51.03m EUAs (vs -51.51m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 54.32m EUAs (vs.  53.16m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €65.21
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €64.19
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €71.4
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €64.20

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical point of view, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading just below its 23.6% Fibonacci level (large Fibonacci, 30.01.2025) at €65.84 and near the 38.2% Fibonacci level (small Fibonacci, 19.03.2025) at €65.44, also close to the middle of the Bollinger Bands at €65.53. It’s trading below key moving averages: MA100 at €72.1, MA50 at €68.88, and MA20 at €65.53, while both RSI and CCI are in neutral territory. If the price rises, the 50% level on the small Fibonacci at €67.10 will be a key resistance point. On the downside, significant support can be found at the 23.6% small Fibonacci level at €63.39, the lower Bollinger Band at €61.13, and the 0% Fibonacci level for both the large and small one at €60.06. The market appears to be in a sideways consolidation phase and it seems to be forming a bearish pennant pattern. If the pattern gets confirmed, this might point towards a further movement towards the downside.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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