Previous Week Events:

Last week, the Dec25 EUA contract remained relatively stable, fluctuating within a narrow €3 range and closing with a weekly gain of 1.3%. Given the Easter holidays and the extended weekend, the market activity was expected to be subdued.

Looking ahead to Week 17, EUAs may continue to move sideways, with a possible downward shift in prices as we enter the warmer season and geopolitical tensions show signs of easing. While EUA prices are still tracking TTF Front Month contract trends, the reduced auction volumes this week could provide some support and help keep prices above key levels.

Auction volume: 9.7 million EUAs, 2.3 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 37.3% full on April 21st.
• Asian stocks dropped on Tuesday
• Easter ceasefire didn’t hold for long - Ukraine and Russia are accusing each other of violations
• Putin says he’s open to direct talks with Ukraine as US pressure builds
• US - Iran moving forward with Nuclear talks in the right direction
• Talks about building strategic gas reserves
• The European Union is looking at ways to make it easier for U.S. gas exports to comply with its methane emissions rules

Investment Funds .

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +1.65m EUAs on April 11th (vs. +15.78m EUAs on April 4th).
• Gross short positions increased to -51.51m EUAs (vs. -43.3m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 53.16m EUAs (vs. 59.09m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €65.00
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €63.96
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €71.74
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €63.97
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which also aligns with the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands. Both the MACD and RSI indicators are in neutral territory, although the RSI is beginning to show a gradual downward trend. In the broader context, if the price continues to decline, strong support is seen around €60. On the upside, resistance is more layered, beginning at €69.25 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level), with additional resistance at the 50-day moving average around €70.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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