Geopolitical and energy market developments are set to influence EUA sentiment this week as a series of high-level political gatherings take place across Germany and Belgium, including the Foreign Affairs Council, an economic summit, and the Munich Security Conference. These meetings are expected to address security, trade, and energy coordination, particularly in light of Ukraine’s continued efforts to strengthen sanctions enforcement and diversify supply. Naftogaz’s receipt of its first US LNG delivery to Ukraine and the signing of new LNG vessel charters with major US exporters highlight the ongoing shift away from Russian gas, while prolonged cold weather across Europe, likely lasting into early spring, continues to support heating demand and power-sector emissions.

On the oil and shipping front, easing tensions in the Middle East weighed on crude prices, reducing near-term supply risk premiums, while the EU escalated its oil sanctions with a broad ban on shipping services. India’s purchase of Venezuelan crude via Trafigura and tightening EU shipping rules ahead of 2026 point to continued realignment in global energy flows. These developments reinforce longer-term structural changes in fuel supply and maritime regulation that will gradually feed into the EU ETS, particularly as shipping emissions are increasingly covered. Overall, sustained cold weather supports near-term EUA demand, while geopolitical coordination and tightening sanctions underpin a more constrained and regulated energy landscape.

Auction volume: 9.23 million EUAs, 1.52 million less than last week.

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Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage currently sits at 37.1% (February 7th, 2026)
• Multiple political gatherings, including the Foreign Affairs Council, economic summit and the Munich Security Conference, will take place this week across Germany and Belgium
• Naftogaz receives first US LNG delivery to Ukraine
• Ukraine imposes sanctions on foreign suppliers of Russian missiles and drones
• Multiple newbuild vessel charters with US LNG giant come NYK and Ocean Yield’s way
• Oil Slides as Easing Middle Eastern Tensions Reduce Supply Risks
• Indian Oil, HPCL buy 2 million barrels Venezuelan oil from Trafigura
• EU Escalates Oil Sanctions With Broad Ban on Shipping Services
• What Is Changing for Shipping 2026
• Prolonged cold weather, likely to last until early spring

Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net long position to +100.62m EUAs on January 30th (vs. +112.52m EUAs on January 23rd).
• Gross short positions increased to -23.76m EUAs (vs  -22.33m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 124.38m EUAs (vs. 134.84m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: €80.30
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €78.67
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €85.252
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 81.579

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Chart A: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR)

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Technical Analysis

Technical analysis for the week indicates improving firmness in the market outlook. From a candlestick perspective, both the daily and weekly charts have posted bullish reversal signals. The weekly chart closed with an indication of Morning Star formation, while the daily chart formed an Inverted Hammer, both of which are traditionally interpreted as bullish indicators.

Currently, EUA is trading near the lower Bollinger Band. Given the emerging bullish signals, there is potential for price appreciation toward the EMA, positioned slightly above the 100-day moving average, in the range of 83.75–84.20 EUR. Additionally, both RSI and MACD are in oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a corrective rebound as these indicators begin to normalize.

For bullish momentum to be confirmed, the price must close above 83 EUR over the next two sessions.

On the downside, a close below 77.40 EUR could trigger further losses, with the key psychological support level at 75 EUR coming into focus.

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Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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