Auction volume: 14.6 million EUAs, 2.9 million more than last week.

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Energy Fundamentals

The fundamental backdrop remains supportive for EUAs, with the energy complex again providing the main upside driver. EU gas storage has increased to 68.0% as of September 12, which is seasonally more comfortable, but still leaves the market exposed to renewed supply disruptions heading into winter. The escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is therefore particularly relevant: oil prices have moved above $100/bbl, while the Saudi pipeline outage could threaten up to 4% of global oil supply if repairs are not completed quickly. The postponement of regional talks on securing Hormuz shipping adds further uncertainty around energy flows. For EUAs, the direct oil impact is limited, but persistent disruption to LNG and wider energy logistics can keep European gas and power prices elevated, supporting fossil generation economics and therefore carbon demand. Record heat and drought across Europe also continue to create a “compound risk” for the power system through higher cooling demand and weaker hydropower output, potentially increasing reliance on thermal generation. The policy backdrop is also becoming incrementally more supportive. EU member states have provisionally agreed to retain the MSR invalidation mechanism, which keeps the structural scarcity mechanism intact and limits the risk of surplus allowances returning to the market; the Commission is currently still placing around 190.5 million EUAs into the MSR for the September 2026–August 2027 period. At the same time, proposals to direct a larger share of ETS revenues towards industrial decarbonisation reinforce the longer-term demand for carbon investment, while the EU-India trade agreement confirms that carbon-related costs remain applicable to Indian steel entering the European market. On the other hand, lower Rhine water levels are increasing freight costs and could disrupt industrial and coal logistics, creating a mixed effect depending on the resulting power-generation mix.

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Overall, the fundamental bias for Dec-26 remains moderately bullish. The combination of geopolitical energy disruption, elevated oil/gas risk and weather-related pressure on Europe's power system provides a supportive backdrop for EUA demand, while the MSR mechanism reinforces the structural scarcity story. The main counterweights are the gradual improvement in gas storage and the possibility that persistently high energy prices begin to weigh on European industrial demand.

• Gas storage currently sits at 68.00% (September 12th, 2026)
• Oil prices up over 2% following new strikes on Saudi, Strait of Hormuz
• Hormuz Meeting With Iran and Gulf Nations Delayed, Oman Says
• Saudi pipeline outage threatens loss of 4% of global oil supply
• EU member states provisionally agree to keep ETS Market Stability Reserve invalidation mechanism
• EU lawmaker proposes more carbon market investments in industry
• Record heat highlights “compound risk” for Europe’s energy system
• Cargo shipping costs rise as Rhine water levels drop again
• Spain sea temperatures hit record highs in summer of 2026, port authority says
• India gains wider EU steel access, but carbon levy remains

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Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net short position to -33.96mln EUAs on August 14th (vs. -32.45mln on August 14th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -24.20mln  EUAs (vs.-24.23mln EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to +58.16mln EUAs (vs. +56.68mln EUAs).
  
  

Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: €
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €77.44
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €84.02

Chart A: EUA Spot (Futures Today) Price (EUR)

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Technical Analysis

EUA Dec-26 price action remains constructive, with the contract trading clearly above the 20-day MA at €83.88, 50-day MA at €82.57 and 100-day MA at €80.12, maintaining a solid upward structure. Price is currently around €86.7, testing the upper Bollinger Band at €86.73 after a steady move higher. The immediate resistance area is therefore around €86.7–87.0, while a sustained break above this zone could bring the €87.5–90 area into focus. On the downside, €83.88 is the first meaningful support, followed by €82.57 and the lower Bollinger Band at €81.03. Momentum has strengthened noticeably, with RSI at 68.77 approaching overbought territory, while CCI at +145 indicates strong short-term buying momentum. The MACD at 1.07 is also positive and moving higher, supporting the current bullish structure. Given that Dec-26 is trading close to the upper Bollinger Band, some short-term consolidation cannot be excluded, but the technical picture remains mildly to moderately bullish while the contract holds above the €83.9–82.6 support zone.

The Dec-26 technical setup remains bullish, with €86.7–87.0 the key near-term resistance. A break above this area could bring €87.5–90 into focus, while rejection around the upper Bollinger Band could initially see the contract consolidate towards €83.9–82.6..

Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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