Auction volume: 14.6 million EUAs, 2.9 million more than last week.

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Energy Fundamentals

The fundamental backdrop is becoming more supportive for EUAs, mainly through the energy complex. EU gas storage has improved to 66.6% as of September 5, which is somewhat more comfortable than the levels seen in August, but still leaves the market exposed to supply disruptions heading into winter. At the same time, renewed US-Iran attacks on shipping have pushed oil higher and are keeping European gas prices elevated as markets price in continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent gained around 8% last week, while European gas has also moved higher, creating a more supportive fuel-switching environment for EUAs. The looming shortage of marine fuel oil, combined with refinery disruptions in Russia and the Middle East, further underlines the tightness across the wider energy complex. On the policy side, the picture is mixed but still structurally supportive. Meanwhile, proposed EU ETS reforms remain a potential bearish risk if they weaken scarcity, although the criticism currently comes mainly from German researchers and environmental organisations rather than the German government itself. Geopolitical developments are more balanced: renewed US-Iran escalation is clearly supportive for energy prices, while the possibility of renewed Russia-Ukraine peace talks could eventually reduce the geopolitical risk premium in European gas. Germany's infrastructure/sabotage risks add another potential source of volatility, but their direct impact on EUA demand remains uncertain.

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Overall, the fundamental bias for EUAs is mildly bullish for the coming week. Low-ish gas storage, elevated TTF prices and renewed Middle East supply risks provide the strongest upside drivers. The main counterweights are improving storage levels, the possibility of Ukraine peace talks and the risk that persistently high energy prices start weighing on European industrial demand.

• Gas storage currently sits at 66.6% (September 5th, 2026)
• Oil extends gains after US and Iran exchange attacks on ships
• European Natural Gas Jumps After US Attacks Iranian Oil Tankers
• Ship fuel shortage looms as refiners strained by war favour other products
• Spain urges EU to create climate adaptation fund, set binding targets
• Turkish carbon market regulator launches 2026 ETS pilot
• Germany opposes EU plan to weaken ETS Market Stability Reserve
• Kremlin says it does not rule out restart of peace talks with Ukraine and US
• Police in eastern German state defuse 21 explosive devices found near power grid
• Germany plans anti-sabotage shield after airport drone attack

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Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net short position to -32.45mln EUAs on August 14th (vs. -36.4mln on August 14th).
• Gross short positions increased to -24.23mln  EUAs (vs.-22.56mln EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to +56.68mln EUAs (vs. +58.96mln EUAs).
  

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Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: €84.87
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €84.21
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €77.23
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €83.10

Chart A: EUA Spot (Futures Today) Price (EUR)

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Technical Analysis

EUA price action remains constructive, with the market trading above the 20-day MA (€82.89), 50-day MA (€81.99) and 100-day MA (€79.56). The recent consolidation around €82–84 has kept the broader upward structure intact. Price is now approaching the upper Bollinger Band at €84.57, making this the first important resistance area. A sustained move above €84.5–85 would bring the previous €86–87 highs back into focus. Momentum is mildly supportive: RSI at 58 remains neutral-to-positive, while CCI at +135 points to renewed short-term buying momentum. MACD is also positive at 0.56, although not showing a strong acceleration. On the downside, €82.9 is the first support, followed by €82.0 around the 50-day MA. Below that, €81.2 and €79.6 become increasingly important.

The technical picture remains slightly bullish, with the price structure favouring a test of €84.5–85 and potentially €86–87 if resistance breaks. Failure to clear €84.5 could instead keep EUA locked in the current €82–85 consolidation range.

Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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