Week Events:

Last week, EUA Spot pricing increased 0.4% from Monday’s open (81.77) to Friday’s close (82.10); weekly high (83.98) / low (81.33) spread was €2.65

Auction volume: 11.7 million EUAs, 1.7 million less than last week

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Energy Fundamentals

The fundamental backdrop for EUAs has turned more supportive through the energy complex, with renewed US-Iran tensions feeding directly into European gas and power markets. EU gas storage has reached 64.7%, but remains well below the roughly 80% five-year average for this point in the year. Following fresh US-Iran attacks, European gas prices have moved sharply higher as concerns over LNG flows through the Middle East resurface. For EUAs, sustained gas strength is potentially supportive as it can improve coal's position in the power stack, increasing emissions intensity and EUA demand. The oil and refined-products complex adds further uncertainty. Renewed geopolitical tensions, disruptions to Russian refining and Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure are keeping European energy markets volatile. Meanwhile, Rhine water levels have improved following rainfall, although shipping restrictions remain a potential complication for commodity flows. On the carbon side, developments such as Türkiye's ETS and the UK's CBAM framework continue to reinforce the longer-term expansion of carbon pricing, although their immediate impact on EUA demand remains limited.

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The fundamental backdrop is moderately bullish for EUAs heading into the coming week. Elevated gas prices, renewed Hormuz risk and tighter energy markets currently provide the strongest support, while relatively comfortable storage and potential demand destruction remain the main counterweights. Gas and developments around the Middle East should remain the key drivers of EUA direction in the week ahead.

• Gas storage currently sits at 64.7% (August 29th, 2026)
• Oil Advances on Fresh Mideast Strikes and Claim Tanker Hit Mines
• European Natural Gas Futures Rise After US Military Strikes Iran
• Russia’s Gasoline Output Drops to 70% of Domestic Demand
• Turkiye publishes ETS regulations, pilot’s launch date still unclear
• UK sets out schemes eligible for CBAM price relief
• US and Iran Exchange Attacks for First Time in About a Month
• Ukraine Says Russia Planning Ground Offensive on Kyiv & Chernihiv
• Rhine water rises after rain, shipping problems not yet over

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Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net short position to -36.4mln EUAs on August 14th (vs. -38.66mln on August 14th).
• Gross short positions increased to -22.56mln  EUAs (vs.-21.35mln EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to +58.96mln EUAs (vs. +60.01mln EUAs).
  

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Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: €83.11
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €82.43
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €77.06
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €81.54

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Chart A: EUA Spot (Futures Today) Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

EUAs are holding around €82.5–83, with price still above the 20-day MA/Bollinger mid at €82.26, the 50-day MA at €81.58 and the 100-day MA at €78.94. This keeps the broader trend constructive, although the market remains trapped below the recent highs. Momentum is improving slightly. RSI at 54 is neutral-to-positive, while CCI around +46 has recovered from negative territory. MACD remains positive at 0.42, but is relatively flat, suggesting that momentum is supportive rather than accelerating. The key level on the upside is €84.00, the current upper Bollinger Band. A sustained break above this area would put the recent €85–86 zone back in focus. On the downside, €82.26 is the first support, followed by €81.58 and then €78.94. A move below €81.58 would weaken the current structure, while €78.94 remains the more important medium-term trend level.

Technically neutral to mildly bullish. The market is consolidating above its key moving averages, with momentum gradually improving. A break above €84 would strengthen the upside structure, while a loss of €81.5–82 would increase the probability of a deeper retracement.

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Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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