Auction volume: 11.1 million EUAs, 3.4 million more than last week.

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Energy Fundamentals

The EUA market enters the week with a somewhat conflicting energy backdrop. Gas storage has climbed to 60.8%, but inventories remain historically low for this point in the summe. Reuters recently described European storage as being at its lowest mid-year level on record, while the ongoing disruption around Hormuz continues to add uncertainty to LNG flows. For the coming week, the gas-carbon relationship therefore remains an important upside driver: sustained gas strength could improve coal-to-gas switching economics and provide support for EUAs, even if outright demand remains subdued. French nuclear availability is expected to fall to its lowest level in three years, with heat-related restrictions taking around 15% of the French nuclear fleet offline at the peak. Lower nuclear output is already lifting power prices and encouraging additional coal and gas generation in neighbouring markets: a fundamentally supportive setup for EUA demand. At the same time, record solar generation is limiting some of that thermal demand, creating a tug-of-war between weather-driven nuclear outages and increasingly strong renewable output. Dutch coal generation moving higher is nevertheless a notable bearish-to-bullish signal for emissions, as it suggests that high power-system stress is translating into additional fossil generation. Geopolitics remains the biggest swing factor. US-Iran negotiations are struggling to make progress and shipping through Hormuz has slowed sharply, keeping both oil and gas markets sensitive to further escalation. Meanwhile, the EU is preparing a significantly broader Russia sanctions package for the autumn, potentially adding another layer of pressure to European energy markets. For EUAs, this creates a two-sided dynamic: higher energy prices and additional fossil generation are supportive, but prolonged energy stress can simultaneously weigh on industrial output and therefore compliance demand.

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For the week ahead, the fundamental backdrop leans moderately supportive for EUAs, but the signal is far from one-directional. Tight gas balances, weaker French nuclear availability and higher coal generation provide upside pressure, while thin summer liquidity, softer industrial activity and continued de-risking can cap the move. The key variable is likely to remain the gas–power complex: if European gas continues higher without a significant deterioration in industrial demand, the carbon market has room to regain some ground after last week's decline.

• Gas storage currently sits at 60.8% (August 15th, 2026)
• EUAs down over the week amid thin activity and rising gas prices
• CAR publishes insurance criteria for CORSIA carbon credit use
• Heat outages drive weekly French nuclear availability to 3-yr low
• Record 55 TWh solar in July helps ease EU grid strain
• Oil struggles for direction as US-Iran talks stall, Hormuz shipping slows
• EU plans most far-reaching sanctions package against Russia in autumn, foreign chief says
• Dutch coal-fired power on the rise this year, pushing up emissions
• Record-early champagne harvest highlights climate change impact on French vineyards
• Companies face $1.4 trillion carbon price exposure over next decade, report says
• Rainfall aids fight against Belgium's biggest wildfire, as blazes rip through Europe
• Russia hits steel plant in new strikes on Ukraine, Kyiv attacks Moscow region
• Russia jails opposition politician for 11 years for anti-war comments, Mediazona says

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Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net short position to -44.36mln EUAs on August 7th (vs. -42.09mln on July 31st).
• Gross short positions decreased to -20.68mln  EUAs (vs.-21.24mln EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to +65.04mln EUAs (vs. +63.33mln  EUAs).
  

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Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: €81.48
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €80.71
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €76.75
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €81.15

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Chart A: EUA Spot (Futures Today) Price (EUR)

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Technical Analysis

EUAs remain in a consolidation phase after the sharp July rally. Price is currently around €81.5–82, sitting just below the 20-day MA/Bollinger mid at €82.38 and around the EMA at €81.8. The failure to reclaim €82.38 keeps the very short-term momentum somewhat neutral, although the broader structure remains constructive as price is still above the 50-day MA at €80.87 and 100-day MA at €78.10. Momentum has cooled considerably: RSI at 48.6 is neutral, while CCI at -72.9 points to some short-term weakness. MACD remains positive at 0.31, but is flattening, suggesting that the previous bullish momentum is losing some strength rather than fully reversing. From a levels perspective, €82.38 is the immediate pivot/resistance. A sustained move above this level would bring €84.88, the upper Bollinger Band, back into focus, followed by the recent high around €85.2. On the downside, €80.87 is the first important support, followed by €79.88 and then the €78.10 100-day MA. A break below €78.10 would materially weaken the current upward structure.

Technically, the picture is neutral to mildly constructive. The market is consolidating rather than clearly reversing, with €82.38 acting as the key trigger on the upside and €80.87–79.88 forming the main near-term support zone. As long as price above that zone remains, the broader upward structure is intact, while a break below it would increase the likelihood of a deeper retracement.

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Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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