Auction volume: 9.45 million EUAs, 2.53 less than last week.

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Energy Fundamentals

Market sentiment continues to be shaped by the balance between easing supply concerns and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. European gas storage has climbed to 48.2%, reflecting steady progress in the injection season and gradually reducing concerns over winter preparedness. Under normal circumstances, this would weigh modestly on energy and carbon prices. However, the market remains reluctant to fully price out geopolitical risk. That uncertainty is largely driven by developments outside Europe. Oil prices rebounded following renewed US and Iranian strikes in the Middle East, although reports of both countries agreeing to resume negotiations have prevented a more pronounced risk premium from developing. Meanwhile, continued fighting in Ukraine and Russia's acknowledgment of domestic fuel shortages reinforce the view that global energy markets remain vulnerable to unexpected supply disruptions. Within Europe, attention is increasingly shifting back toward climate policy. France and Italy are pushing for reforms that reduce fossil fuel dependence while revisiting aspects of the EU ETS, as Ireland prepares to facilitate negotiations on what could become one of the bloc's most significant climate debates this year. At the same time, record-breaking heat across Europe has renewed the focus on energy security and decarbonisation, supporting the longer-term role of carbon pricing despite ongoing discussions around policy adjustments.

Overall, the near-term outlook for EUA prices remains finely balanced. Improving gas inventories provide a modest bearish influence, while geopolitical uncertainty and continued commitment to Europe's climate agenda offer underlying support. Unless either energy markets or ETS policy deliver a decisive surprise, EUA prices are likely to remain driven by headline risk and evolving expectations around the second half of 2026.

• Gas storage currently sits at 48.2% (June 27th, 2026)
• Ireland prepares to play dealmaker on EU’s biggest climate fight of the year
• France, Italy urge EU to cut fossil reliance, reform ETS
• Europe’s Heat Wave Is the Worst on Record, Researchers Find
• Russia's Putin acknowledges fuel shortages, task force set up to ensure supplies
• Oil climbs following renewed US, Iran strikes in Middle East
• Energy Supply Concerns Fuel EU Push to Change Methane Rules
• Iran and US agree to halt attacks and renew talks, US official says
• Russia pounds on the gates of Ukraine's 'fortress belt'
• Putin says Russia will press on with front-line campaign regardless of Ukraine proposals
  

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +58.90m EUAs on June 19th (vs. +44.98 EUAs on June 12th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -17.48m  EUAs (vs.-20.66m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased  to 76.37 mln EUAs (vs. 65.64m  EUAs).
  

Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: € 80.06
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €79.00
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €75.54
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €77.358

Chart A: EUA Spot (Futures Today) Price (EUR)

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Technical Analysis

Technically, EUAs have sustained their upward momentum above a key psychological milestone, with the Dec-26 contract grinding higher to trade around the EUR 80.45 level. This incremental appreciation solidifies the structural breakout above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, extending the well-defined pattern of higher local lows and maintaining a dominant topside regime.

The EUR 80.00 handle, alongside the 50% Fibonacci retracement at EUR 78.33, continues to function as a formidable structural support zone. Momentum indicators demonstrate that while immediate velocity has moderated, the broader trend remains firmly intact; the MACD lines continue to hover constructively above the zero line with a flattening histogram showing a brief consolidation of strength, while the RSI holds steady at 62, indicating durable buyer control with sufficient capacity for further upside extension before encountering overbought conditions.

From a purely technical perspective, the price action is hugging the upper quadrant of the Bollinger Bands, which remain oriented upward to accommodate the positive trend. The primary upside objective remains a direct test of the heavy liquidity cluster at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near EUR 81.90. Conversely, any near-term profit-taking or mean-reversion pullbacks are expected to find robust insulation at the EUR 78.33 macro floor and the ascending 20-day moving average.

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Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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