Auction volume: 11.98 million EUAs, equal to last week.

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Energy Fundamentals

The fundamental backdrop for EUA prices remains balanced, with easing geopolitical tensions offset by continued structural support from European climate policy. European gas storage has risen further to 46.4%, improving confidence around winter preparedness and reducing some of the tightness concerns that dominated earlier in the year. In addition, progress in US-Iran negotiations and a shared commitment to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open have weighed on oil prices, signaling lower supply risks and reducing the geopolitical premium embedded in energy markets. This softer energy environment could limit upside pressure on EUA prices in the short term. However, several developments continue to support the longer-term carbon market outlook. The European Commission has clarified that Russian LNG trade will be fully banned for EU operators from 2027, reinforcing Europe's commitment to reducing reliance on Russian energy. Meanwhile, disruptions at a Qatari gas export terminal serve as a reminder that global gas supply remains vulnerable to unforeseen outages, keeping some underlying risk premium in place.

On the policy side, Brussels appears increasingly focused on balancing industrial competitiveness with climate ambitions. Plans to grant additional free allowances to industry this year may provide temporary relief and slightly soften compliance demand, introducing a modest bearish element. Conversely, growing calls to expand the EU ETS to international aviation and studies showing limited impacts on ticket prices underline that the broader trend remains one of expanding carbon pricing mechanisms. This is further supported by financial institutions increasingly incorporating net-zero transition risks into their frameworks. Overall, the near-term outlook for EUA prices appears relatively neutral. Improving gas storage levels and easing geopolitical risks are mildly bearish factors, while ongoing expansion of carbon pricing and persistent supply uncertainties provide longer-term support. As a result, EUA prices are likely to remain sensitive to both energy market developments and future policy decisions, with neither bulls nor bears holding a decisive advantage at present.

• Gas storage currently sits at 46.4% (June 20th, 2026)
• US and Iran Make ‘Progress’ in Talks, Aim to Keep Hormuz Open
• Oil falls after US-Iran talks signal easing supply risks
• EU Commission clarifies all Russian LNG trade is banned from 2027 for EU operators, letter shows
• Explosion as Qatar restarts gas export terminal hurts 54 and leaves 18 missing
• BoE Integrates Net Zero Transition Risk into Collateral Framework
• EU crafts plan to give industries extra free CO2 permits this year, diplomats say
• EU urged to expand ETS to international flights as kerosene shock reignites aviation climate debate
• EU ETS expansion would add less than 1% to some long-haul fares while raising billions for climate action
  

Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net long position to +44.98m EUAs on June 12th (vs. +49.23 EUAs on June 5th).
• Gross short positions slightly increased to -20.66m  EUAs (vs.-20.06m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased  to 65.64 mln EUAs (vs. 69.29m  EUAs).

Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: € 80.70
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €79.61
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €75.54
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €77.358

Chart A: EUA Spot (Futures Today) Price (EUR)

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Technical Analysis

EUAs have extended their bullish momentum to pierce a major psychological milestone, with the Dec-26 contract decisively breaking and consolidating above the EUR 80.00 threshold to trade around the EUR 80.14 level. This extension solidifies the structural breakout above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, locking in a clear pattern of higher local lows and confirming a dominant topside regime.

The EUR 78.33 level, alongside the 100-day moving average at EUR 77.81, has now been firmly reinforced as a major macro baseline support zone. Momentum indicators confirm that the bulls remain in complete control; the MACD lines are extending their bullish divergence well above the zero line backed by expanding green histogram bars, while the RSI has steadily climbed to 65, indicating robust buyer velocity with sustainable running room remaining before encountering overbought exhaustion.

From a purely technical perspective, the market continues to expand directly along the upper Bollinger Band, which is widening to accommodate the positive volatility. The primary upside objective remains a direct test of the heavy liquidity cluster at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near EUR 81.90. Conversely, any localized profit-taking or mean-reversion pullbacks are expected to find firm institutional insulation near the previous breakout pivot of EUR 79.45 and the underlying EUR 78.33 structural floor.

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Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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