Auction volume: 11.98 million EUAs, 1.38 more than last week.

Energy Fundamentals

The fundamental backdrop for EUA prices has turned somewhat more balanced, with easing energy market pressures offset by continued structural support from climate policy. European gas storage has risen to 44.3% as of June 13th, improving confidence around winter preparedness. In addition, the announcement of a US-Iran deal and President Trump’s comments that it would “let the oil flow” have weighed on both oil and gas prices, reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had supported energy markets in recent months. Growing concerns over rising oil inventories further reinforce the view that supply conditions may become more comfortable, which could limit upside pressure on EUA prices in the near term. Despite softer energy prices, the policy backdrop remains broadly supportive for carbon markets. EU member states have agreed to extend CBAM to downstream sectors from 2028, while the UK has confirmed changes to its ETS auction calendar to accommodate maritime inclusion. These developments underline the continued expansion of carbon pricing mechanisms and support the longer-term demand outlook for emissions allowances. Meanwhile, legal challenges to the EU’s carbon removal framework and attempts in the US to roll back emissions regulations highlight that climate policy remains politically contested, but they do not materially alter the broader direction of travel. Geopolitical risks have also moderated somewhat. Progress on the Iran deal and Russia’s willingness to engage with US peace proposals have eased some concerns surrounding global energy supply disruptions. As a result, the strong bullish impulse provided by geopolitical tensions earlier this year has weakened. Overall, the near-term outlook for EUA prices appears relatively neutral. Higher storage levels and easing energy prices provide a modest bearish influence, while the continued strengthening and expansion of carbon market mechanisms offer underlying structural support. This combination suggests a more range-bound environment, with market sentiment likely remaining sensitive to both energy prices and future policy developments.

• Gas storage currently sits at 44.3% (June 13th, 2026)
• Crude Tumbles As Trump Says Iran Deal Will ‘Let The Oil Flow!’
• Europe Natural Gas Extends Drop After Trump Announces Iran Deal
• Oil Stockpiles Heading For ‘Uncomfortable’ Levels, Chevron Says
• US EPA sends California emissions rules to Congress for potential reversal
• Environmental groups challenge EU’s new carbon removal rules over ‘greenwashing’ risks
• EU Member States Agree To Extend CBAM To Downstream Sectors From 2028
• UK govt confirms imminent 2026 ETS auction calendar change for maritime inclusion
• Russia's Lavrov says Moscow committed to U.S. proposals on peace, rejects Europe's ultimatums
  

Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net long position to +49.23m EUAs on June 5th (vs. +51.28 EUAs on May 29th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -20.06m  EUAs (vs.-20.41m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased  to 69.29 mln EUAs (vs. 71.69m  EUAs).
  

Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: € 79.67
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €78.55
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €75.39
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €76.568

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Chart A: EUA Spot (Futures Today) Price (EUR)

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Technical Analysis

Technically, EUAs have aggressively resumed their upward trajectory, with the Dec-26 contract staging a powerful rebound to trade around the EUR 79.45 level. This bullish resurgence has completely neutralized the recent corrective pullback, with the latest marquee green candle decisively reclaiming both the 100-day moving average and the critical 50% Fibonacci retracement level to re-establish a dominant topside bias.

The EUR 78.33 level, which briefly capped the market during the prior consolidation, has been cleanly pierced and has flipped back into immediate structural support alongside the EUR 77.81 zone. Momentum indicators reflect this sudden influx of aggressive buying pressure; the MACD lines are stabilizing well above the zero line with the bearish histogram bars rapidly contracting toward a bullish re-cross, while the RSI has hooked sharply upward to 62, signaling robust buyer re-entry with ample capacity for further expansion before encountering overbought exhaustion.

From a purely technical perspective, the market is expanding back toward the upper Bollinger Band, positioning itself for an imminent retest of the psychological EUR 80.00 threshold. A sustained daily close above this level opens a direct path toward the next major liquidity cluster at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near EUR 81.90. Conversely, any localized intraday pullbacks are expected to find firm baseline insulation within the newly re-established EUR 77.81 to EUR 78.33 support zone.

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Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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