Auction volume: 11.98 million EUAs, 1.38 more than last week.

Energy Fundamentals

The fundamental backdrop for EUA prices remains complexly balanced but with a structurally supportive undertone. European gas storage has advanced to 42.1% as of June 6th, continuing its seasonal refill trajectory. While an increasingly cautious outlook for natural gas futures and an underlying supply glut would typically alleviate upward pressure on both gas and carbon markets, these seasonal headwinds are being aggressively offset by a severe escalation in global geopolitical risk. Tensions in the Middle East have intensified dramatically following Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon, driving oil prices up by more than $4 amidst a broader equity market pullback. Systemic anxieties regarding the long-term structural realignment of post-war energy transits through the Strait of Hormuz are prompting a flight to safety, directly propping up broader energy complexes and maintaining elevated utility hedging demand within the carbon market. Even as large oil majors attempt to insulate local consumers with temorary retail price caps, the macroeconomic reality of energy insecurity remains a primary upward driver. From a regulatory and structural perspective, compliance enforcement and scope expansion continue to reinforce the long-term scarcity narrative. As Brussels bureaucrats steel themselves for a monumental political battle over future carbon pricing caps, the European Commission has sharpened its enforcement mechanisms by launching lawsuits against Spain and Poland for failing to transpose recent ETS updates. Concurrently, the geographical and sectoral net of carbon pricing is widening rapidly; the UK ETS is set to integrate the maritime sector starting July 1st, while global shipping operators are accelerating infrastructure alignment to meet strict EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime compliance mandates.

Overall, while expanding gas inventories and near-term supply cushions offer a modest bearish counterweight, the combination of acute geopolitical supply shocks, rigid enforcement against non-compliant member states, and an expanding regulatory perimeter leaves the near-term outlook for EUA prices mildly constructive and highly sensitive to headline risk.

• Gas storage currently sits at 42.1% (June 6th, 2026)
• Stock markets fall and oil jumps as Middle East conflict intensifies and AI boom falters
• Post-War Oil Trade Could Look Nothing Like It Did Before Hormuz
• Oil prices climb more than $4 after Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon
• This Oil Giant Has Capped Prices at the Pump—but Just for the French
• Natural Gas News: Forecast Turns Cautious as Supply Glut Pressures Futures
• EU sues Spain and Poland for failing to transpose ETS updates
• UK ETS expands to maritime from 1 July
• OceanScore Supporting Anglo-Eastern on EU ETS and Fuel EU Compliance
• Brussels bureaucrats get ready for the carbon pricing battle of their lives

Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net long position to +51.28m EUAs on May 29th (vs. +39.09 EUAs on May 22nd).
• Gross short positions decreased to -20.41m  EUAs (vs.-23.08m EUAs).
• Gross long positions stayed almost the same at 71.69 mln EUAs (vs. 62.17m  EUAs).
  

Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: € 76.09
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €74.95
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €77.27
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €75.37

Chart A: EUA Spot (Futures Today) Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

Technically, EUAs have experienced a sharp corrective pullback from their recent topside extension, with the Dec-26 contract retracing from the psychological EUR 80.00 threshold to trade around the EUR 76.17 level. This swift down-move has cleanly broken back below both the 100-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, effectively shifting the short-term directional bias back into a corrective consolidation posture.

The EUR 78.33 zone, which briefly functioned as new structural support, has been aggressively violated and has flipped back into an overhead barrier. Momentum indicators confirm this rapid influx of selling pressure; the MACD lines have executed a definitive bearish crossover high above the zero line with expanding red histogram bars, while the RSI has fallen sharply to a neutral 48, confirming that previous overbought conditions have been fully unwound amid the liquidation.

From a purely technical perspective, the market has decoupled from the upper Bollinger Band and is currently testing the confluence of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near the mid-band. The primary downside target remains the major structural support cluster at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near EUR 74.76. Conversely, any localized relief rallies or mean-reversion attempts are expected to encounter heavy supply at the newly re-established EUR 77.81 to EUR 78.33 resistance pivot.

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Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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AFS ENERGY B.V.

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