Energy Fundamentals

The fundamental backdrop for EUAs remains moderately supportive, with energy market strength and geopolitical tensions continuing to underpin sentiment. European gas storage has improved to 35%, helping reduce immediate supply concerns ahead of summer injections. However, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly surrounding Iran and global oil flows, limiting the bearish impact of stronger storage levels. Energy markets strengthened further this week after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, triggering another rise in oil prices. At the same time, ongoing discussions within the US administration about potentially suspending gas taxes highlight concerns over persistently elevated fuel costs. Combined with comments from oil executives that the Iran conflict could structurally reshape global energy markets, this continues to support broader energy pricing and indirectly reinforces EUA demand expectations. On the carbon side, record aviation emissions and the ongoing High-Level Stakeholder Roundtable on the EU ETS review keep attention focused on the potential expansion and tightening of the system rather than meaningful relaxation. This policy backdrop helped EUAs gain nearly 2% week-on-week alongside stronger oil and gas markets, suggesting that the market still sees structural support for carbon pricing despite ongoing political debate.

Geopolitical signals from Russia also remain relevant. While Putin indicated the Ukraine war may be “coming to an end,” the overall macro environment remains uncertain, and risk premia across European energy markets have not fully faded. Overall, the combination of firmer energy prices, geopolitical instability, and continued focus on emissions policy creates a mildly bullish backdrop for EUA prices in the near term, although volatility is likely to remain elevated as headlines continue to drive sentiment.

• Gas storage currently sits at 35% (May 9th, 2026)
• Energy secretary says Trump administration is open to suspending gas tax amid soaring prices
• The Iran war will change global energy markets in these important ways, oil executives say
• Oil prices jump after Trump dismisses Iran proposal to end war
• Record aviation emissions bolster case for wider EU ETS, report says
• High-Level Stakeholder Roundtable on EU ETS Review
• EUAs up nearly 2% week-on-week as oil, gas strengthen
• Putin leads smaller Victory Day celebration, sees Ukraine war ‘coming to an end’
• Trump calls Iran’s response to US peace proposal ‘totally unacceptable’

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Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net long position to +34.98m EUAs on May 1st (vs. +38 EUAs on April 24th).
• Gross short positions increased to -27.53m  EUAs (vs. -26.87m EUAs).
• Gross long positions slightly decreased to 62.51 mln EUAs (vs. 64.87m  EUAs).
  
  

Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: € 75.22
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €73.96
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €75.24
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €73.56

Chart A: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR)

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Technical Analysis

Technically, EUAs continue to trade within the EUR 72–77 range for the Dec-26 contract. The MACD has flattened, while the RSI remains in neutral territory, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum. The EUR 74.76 level remains a key resistance area, as it coincides with both the mid-Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

From a purely technical perspective, the market appears to be awaiting stronger signals before committing to a more significant move. As fundamentals continue to drive sentiment, the market could initially test resistance around EUR 77.20 or revisit support near EUR 72.50, depending on incoming news flow.

Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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