Last week, EUAs  rose 0.26% from Monday’s open (88.07) to Friday’s close (88.30); weekly high (88.88)/ low (86.83) spread was €2.05.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict continues into the New Year, maintaining elevated geopolitical risk for European energy markets and EUAs. Cold weather across Europe is supporting heating demand and power-sector emissions, providing near-term support for EUA prices. Additional international tensions, including Trump’s capture of Nicolas Maduro affecting Venezuelan oil access, potential future actions involving Colombia and Mexico, and North Korea’s missile tests during meetings between China and South Korea, add to global energy uncertainty. In Europe, Denmark pushed back against Trump’s claims to Greenland, illustrating broader geopolitical friction that could influence regional energy strategy and investor sentiment.

Structural and policy developments continue to underpin the EU ETS. Persistent cold highlights EUA sensitivity to fuel switching between gas and coal, while long-term trends remain supportive as renewable energy deployment expands and carbon regulations strengthen. Overall, near-term EUA prices are influenced by winter demand and energy market uncertainty, whereas medium-term market tightening remains anchored by structural decarbonisation and climate policy momentum.

Auction volume: 5,330,000

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Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage currently sits at 61.4% (Jan 2, 2026)
• Ukraine-Russia war continues into the New Year
• Trump captures Nicolas Maduro, as Venezuelan oil access impact
• Colombia and Mexico amongst future countries that Trump could invade
• Denmark pushes back against Trump's claim to overtake Greenland
• North Korea tests missiles amongst a meeting between China's Xi Jinping and South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung  
• Cold weather continues throughout Europe for the beginning of 2026

Investment Funds

• Investment funds decreased their net long position to +116.16m EUAs on December 24th (vs. +117.57m EUAs on December 19th).
• Gross short positions slightly increased to -27.9m EUAs (vs  -27.03m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 144.06m EUAs (vs. 144.60m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: 88.00
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: 85.93
• YTD Spot EUA Price: € 85.473
• MTD Spot EUA Price:  € 85.473

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

Price action remains constructive, with the market holding above the 20-day MA / EMA (81.5–81.6) and continuing to respect this zone as short-term dynamic support. The 50-day MA (80.0) is trending higher underneath, while the 100-day MA (76.6) stays well below spot, confirming that the broader trend structure remains intact. Recent candles show some consolidation near the highs, but no decisive loss of structure. The Bollinger Bands are moderately expanded, with price oscillating in the upper half of the range. This points to sustained bullish pressure, though momentum has shifted from expansion into digestion. A rotation toward the mid-band would still fit within a healthy trend profile and would not necessarily signal weakness. Momentum indicators are neutral-to-supportive. RSI (58) sits comfortably above the midline, suggesting underlying strength without overheating. CCI (60) has eased from recent highs, reflecting short-term consolidation rather than trend exhaustion. MACD remains positive but is flattening slightly, hinting that upside momentum is slowing rather than reversing.

The technical backdrop leans mildly bullish, with the trend still firmly in place but momentum transitioning into consolidation. As long as price holds above the short-term moving averages, upside continuation remains plausible, while any pullbacks currently look corrective rather than trend-changing.

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Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

AFS ENERGY B.V.

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