Energy Fundamentals

The outlook for EUA prices this week is shaped by a continued tension between supportive geopolitical risk in energy markets and increasingly mixed underlying demand signals. European gas storage has risen to 31.5% as of late April, marking a gradual improvement but still leaving inventories below comfortable levels for this stage of the injection season. This keeps the market sensitive to supply-side disruptions, particularly as uncertainty around key transit routes persists.

Geopolitical developments remain the dominant driver. Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing diplomatic engagement with Russia suggest a potential de-escalation pathway, but negotiations remain fragile, with US–Iran peace talks stalling and oil prices rising modestly in response. At the same time, continued disruptions and risk premia in tanker markets, alongside a steady increase in LNG vessel orders despite the uncertain outlook, reinforce expectations of structurally tight global gas and oil balances. These dynamics continue to provide indirect support to EUA prices through higher fuel-switching incentives in the power sector.

However, broader signals remain more mixed. A rare late-April Arctic cold air intrusion across Eastern and Southeastern Europe is expected to temporarily lift heating demand, offering short-term support to gas and power prices, but this effect is likely transient and does not materially alter the underlying seasonal trajectory. Meanwhile, the acceleration of LNG infrastructure investment contrasts with the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, highlighting a market that is positioning for long-term demand resilience despite near-term volatility.

• Gas storage currently sits at 31.5% (April 25th, 2026)
• Iran gave US a proposal for reopening the Strait Of Hormuz
• Iranian foreign minister heads to Russia
• LNG tanker orders gain pace despite mixed outlook from Iran war
• Oil rises 1% as US-Iran peace talks stall
• Gala Shooting Suspect Was Targeting Trump Administration Officials, Writings Reveal
• A rare late-April Arctic cold air mass intrusion is set to plunge temperatures across Eastern and Southeastern Europe

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Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +41.44m EUAs on April 10th (vs. +34.72 EUAs on April 10th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -27.57 EUAs (vs. -36.17m EUAs).
• Gross long positions slightly decreased to 68.99 mln EUAs (vs. 70.89m  EUAs).
  

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Market Prices

• Indicative Dec26 EUA Price: €74.32
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €73.02
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €75.49
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €72.76

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Chart A: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR)

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Technical Analysis

The technical outlook for this week indicates that the 74.20 level on the December 2026 contract, previously acting as resistance two weeks ago, has now transitioned into a support level. EUAs are currently struggling to break above this threshold, which also coincides with the 61% Fibonacci retracement level.
Should the price move out of its current consolidation range, the next upside targets are 76.84, followed by 77.62, aligning with the 100-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the downside, a break below 74.00 EUR would expose initial support at approximately 73.30, a level reinforced by both the exponential moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. A sustained move below this point could open the way toward the mid-71 EUR range.
Technical indicators present a mixed but slightly bearish bias. Both MACD and FSI suggest potential downward pressure, though not of a particularly strong magnitude. Meanwhile, the RSI remains neutral, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum.
Overall, the market is likely to remain range-bound between 70 and 75 EUR in the near term, unless new fundamental developments emerge to drive a decisive breakout.

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Chart B: December 2026 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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