From China’s new battery tax policies to the growing industry debate over CBAM and the EU ETS, we analyze the regulatory shifts defining the second week of 2026.

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Macroeconomics and Global Developments

China’s EV Sales Set to Slow as Subsidies Fade

China's retail sales of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to grow by just 10% in 2026, down from 18% in 2025, as the government phases out key subsidies. This slowdown follows sustained pricing pressure and overcapacity challenges. Although exports remain a bright spot, domestic demand is expected to remain flat, and competition continues to intensify.

China to Scrap Export Tax Rebates for PV and Battery Products

Starting April 1, China will cancel VAT export rebates for photovoltaic (PV) products and reduce then eliminate those for battery products by 2027. The move is designed to curb excessive price declines in overseas markets and reduce trade tensions linked to rebate-driven discounting practices.

Oil Prices Dip Amid Iran Stability Claims and Venezuelan Export Talks

Brent and WTI crude edged down as markets processed stabilizing signals from Iran following recent unrest and news that Venezuela may soon resume sanctioned oil exports to the United States. While geopolitical risks remain, analysts expect oil prices to remain rangebound barring any major supply disruptions.

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Carbon Markets

Yara: Suspending CBAM for Fertilizers Would Undermine EU Climate Goals

Fertilizer producer Yara said it would be “surprising” if the EU were to suspend CBAM for fertilizers so soon after implementation, arguing that cost pass-throughs were expected and necessary. The company warned that removing CBAM while phasing out EU ETS free allowances would risk harming domestic producers.

Czech and Slovak Leaders Call for Multi-Year EU ETS Freeze

Czechia and Slovakia have escalated their opposition to the EU ETS, with both leaders advocating for a four- to five-year suspension of the scheme. They cite rising energy costs and economic damage to heavy industry, while also denouncing the EU Green Deal’s impact on competitiveness.

Equitable Earth Raises $14.7 Million for Nature-Based Carbon Standards

Paris-based Equitable Earth secured $14.7 million in funding to expand its certification standard for nature-based carbon projects. The firm, recently approved under the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles, aims to scale high-integrity credits with digital monitoring and Indigenous-led participation models.

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Renewables and Biofuels

Egypt Signs $1.8 Billion in Renewable Energy Deals

Egypt has signed major agreements with Scatec and Sungrow, including a 1.7 GW solar plant with 4 GWh of battery storage and a new battery factory in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. The deals advance Egypt's goal of achieving 42% renewable energy in its power mix by 2030.

India’s Winter Power Demand Nears Summer Peaks

India’s electricity demand hit 241 GW in December, nearly matching summer peak levels, driven by heating and strong manufacturing activity. Analysts point to the increasing year-round strain on the power grid as climate volatility intensifies consumption trends.

Maersk Looks to Ethanol as Diversification Strategy

Maersk is exploring ethanol as a green fuel alternative to reduce dependence on China-dominated green methanol markets. The move reflects broader geopolitical and supply chain diversification efforts, with potential implications for IMO climate rule negotiations.

Moeve and Galp Explore Merging Downstream Operations

Spanish energy company Moeve and Portugal’s Galp are in talks to combine refining and mobility assets across the Iberian Peninsula. The deal would create two platforms: one for low-carbon industrial activities and another for EV charging and fuel retail.

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Corporate Sustainability and Regulation

US Climate Treaty Exit Unlikely to Derail EU Transition

Despite the US formally exiting the UNFCCC framework, analysts expect limited impact on the EU’s net-zero trajectory. European policy momentum remains anchored in law, although the withdrawal could redirect investment flows away from US clean energy projects backed by the previous administration.

EPA Rejects Colorado’s Coal Phase-Out Plan

The US EPA has rejected Colorado’s plan to retire several coal plants early to comply with regional haze rules, arguing the state did not secure consent from the affected plants. The decision aligns with broader federal efforts to extend the lifespan of coal assets to ensure baseload reliability.