This week’s developments reflect the deepening intersection between geopolitics, energy markets, and climate policy. From shifting oil dynamics in Venezuela and Russia to growing momentum behind clean cooking credits and carbon market innovation, global decarbonisation efforts are increasingly shaped by policy decisions, technological standards, and energy security priorities. In parallel, infrastructure investments and legislative updates are advancing across renewables, biofuels, and emissions trading schemes.

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Macroeconomics & Energy Geopolitics

Rosneft Oil Cargo Highlights Sanctions Fallout

A Rosneft crude shipment has spent more than 11 weeks navigating Europe and Asia in search of a buyer, demonstrating the growing impact of sanctions on Russian oil. Initially shipped from Russia’s Ust-Luga terminal, the cargo was transferred mid-route and now sits near the Chinese port of Rizhao, a location also under US sanctions. The delay underscores a growing reluctance among Indian and Asian refiners to accept Russian cargoes tied to sanctioned firms, despite attractive discounts. Indian refiners have now turned to non-sanctioned suppliers, illustrating the effectiveness of the US pressure campaign in tightening global oil flows.

Potential Regime Change in Venezuela Could Shift Oil Markets

Speculation around a US-led regime change in Venezuela has sparked analysis of the potential oil market impact. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and a change in leadership could both spur short-term price volatility and lead to longer-term market rebalancing. Analysts expect an initial price spike if production or exports are disrupted, followed by a potential slump as sanctions are lifted and production scales up. The US refining sector, which is optimised for heavy crude, could see renewed access to Venezuelan supply, altering trade dynamics with Canada and others. While still hypothetical, the scenario is being monitored closely by market participants.

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Carbon Markets

Chinese ETS Found to Enhance Innovation Quality

A new academic study finds that China's emissions trading scheme (ETS) is effectively encouraging high-quality innovation in manufacturing firms. Rather than increasing the total number of patents, companies under the ETS are producing more cited and higher-value intellectual property. The research indicates that carbon pricing is pushing firms to shift away from low-impact patent strategies and toward substantive technological progress. Regions with stronger environmental oversight show even greater innovation gains, and large firms in high-tech sectors benefit most. The study supports further strengthening of the Chinese ETS to drive clean tech development.

EU Parliament Aims for Swift ETS2 Reform

The European Parliament is preparing for expedited negotiations on reforms to the EU’s second Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS2), covering road transport and heating fuels. The European People’s Party has been assigned leadership of the file and plans to publish a draft report by early spring. The reforms target the Market Stability Reserve mechanism, aiming to smooth price volatility. While the changes may weaken the carbon price signal and reduce investment incentives, they are seen as necessary to address social concerns, particularly in lower-income member states.

Gold Standard Tags First Cookstove Credits with CCP Label

Gold Standard has issued its first Core Carbon Principles (CCP) labels for clean cookstove projects, covering four initiatives in Kenya, Togo, Nigeria, and Mongolia. These projects, which aim to reduce deforestation, indoor air pollution, and household emissions, are now recognised for meeting integrity benchmarks set by the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market. This move is expected to boost investor confidence in social-impact credits and could significantly scale up clean cooking initiatives. Over 8.4 million CCP-eligible credits have been issued by Gold Standard to date, with future supply projected to grow rapidly.

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Renewables & Biofuels

UK Approves Early Investment in Electricity ‘Superhighways’

Ofgem has approved fast-tracked investment in three high-voltage transmission projects to reduce the cost of wind curtailment. Current grid limitations force wind farms to shut down during periods of high output, a practice that could cost UK consumers over £12 billion annually by the end of the decade. The new lines will connect generation sites in Scotland and the North Sea to demand centres in southern England, with operations expected in the early 2030s. The decision aligns with broader efforts to modernise grid infrastructure to accommodate the growth of intermittent renewables.

Future Biogas Anaerobic Digestion Plant Approved in Lincolnshire

Planning approval has been granted for a new anaerobic digestion facility in Lincolnshire, designed to produce up to 150 terawatt-hours of biomethane annually. Operated by Future Biogas, the project will support electricity generation for roughly 35,000 homes and enable sustainable crop partnerships with local farmers. While some concerns were raised over delivery hours and traffic, the council determined that the plant met environmental and planning requirements. The development marks another step forward for UK biomethane production and rural energy transition efforts.

US Court Presses EPA for Biofuel Mandate Timeline

A US federal appeals court has ordered the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide an update within one week on the timeline for finalising 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard quotas. The update follows ongoing litigation involving two refiners challenging their exemption status. The EPA had previously cited a winter 2025–2026 timeframe for releasing the new mandates, though delays caused by a partial government shutdown have postponed regulatory activity. The timing of these decisions will have significant implications for credit markets, compliance costs, and future investment in US biofuel production.

Victoria Issues First Gas Exploration Permits Since 2018

The Australian state of Victoria has opened tenders for new gas exploration blocks in the Otway and Gippsland basins, responding to projected domestic shortfalls starting in 2028. While the government has pledged the gas will be used for domestic supply only, the move has been met with criticism from environmental groups and some Indigenous landholders. Victoria has committed to ambitious emission reduction targets by 2035, and critics argue that new fossil fuel development is incompatible with those goals. Industry groups, however, view the permits as essential to energy security and manufacturing competitiveness.