This week saw continued fallout from COP30, with formal discussions on the fossil fuel transition now moving outside the negotiation framework. Several regulatory and infrastructure challenges dominated headlines, including grid bottlenecks in Europe, a policy delay regarding UK hydrogen transport networks, and questions over the future of the EU’s Green Claims Directive. In the carbon markets, the UK advanced its CBAM legislation, while the voluntary market continued to debate how removals should count towards corporate net-zero targets. Developments in energy infrastructure, trade, and governance highlighted the growing tension between ambition and implementation across the sustainability landscape.

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Macroeconomics & Geopolitics

Fossil Fuels Roadmap Deferred Beyond COP30

COP30 in Belém concluded without agreement on a fossil fuel transition roadmap. Despite backing from over 80 countries, opposition from oil-producing states blocked a formal outcome. Instead, delegates agreed to launch voluntary initiatives, including a Global Implementation Accelerator and the “Belém Mission to 1.5°C.” These frameworks aim to maintain momentum towards the Paris Agreement goals. Brazil, which holds the COP presidency through COP31, pledged to produce a roadmap outside the official negotiations and will host a high-level fossil fuel transition event in Colombia in April. While lacking legal force, the presidency’s initiative could offer structure for willing countries to coordinate action.

Japan Greenlights Hokkaido Nuclear Restart

Hokkaido’s Tomari nuclear plant has received regional approval to restart operations after a decade-long shutdown. The endorsement by the local governor marks a critical step under Japan’s post-Fukushima regulatory framework. The restart is expected to reduce power costs and support energy-intensive industries, including a semiconductor plant under development. The plant’s No. 3 unit was cleared by regulators earlier this year and could be operational by 2027.

OPEC+ Maintains Output Pause Amid Venezuela Tensions

Oil prices rose as OPEC+ reiterated its three-month production pause, citing seasonal demand weakness. Brent climbed to over $63 per barrel, with WTI approaching $60. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions escalated after the US warned airlines to avoid Venezuelan airspace, though President Trump later downplayed the statement. Supply concerns were further heightened by damage to a Black Sea oil mooring linked to Kazakhstan exports.

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Carbon Markets

UK Finalises CBAM Legislation with Adjustments

The UK government has confirmed that its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will be legislated as part of the Finance Bill 2025–26, taking effect from 2027. Indirect emissions will be excluded until at least 2029, and a phased reduction of UK ETS free allowances will begin the same year. Adjustments based on consultation feedback include exemptions for precursor goods and temporary admissions, alongside technical changes to prevent double carbon pricing. The legislation will initially cover aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and iron and steel, aligning with EU CBAM sectors, excluding electricity.

SBTi Urged to Rethink Article 6 Requirement for CDRs

A coalition of 55 stakeholders, led by the Nordic Carbon Removal Association, has called on the Science Based Targets initiative to revise its Corporate Net-Zero Standard. The group argued that requiring Article 6 authorisation for permanent removals to count towards neutralisation could restrict much-needed investment. Instead, they proposed allowing removals provided they are not double-counted and contribute to national targets. Signatories included major carbon market actors such as Stripe, Puro.earth, South Pole, and Climeworks.

Gold Standard Approves Digital Monitoring Pilot

Gold Standard has approved a pilot project using digital sensors and sales platforms to track adoption and fuel savings from biomass stoves in Nigeria. Developed by Burn and Germany’s Climate Solutions, the system replaces manual monitoring and supports issuance of Core Carbon Principles-labelled credits. Nearly 600,000 integrity-tagged cookstove credits are expected to be issued by year-end, some of which will also be eligible for CORSIA compliance.

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Renewables & Biofuels

E.ON CEO Calls for Slower Renewable Roll-Out in Germany

E.ON’s CEO has warned that Germany’s power grid cannot keep pace with its rapid renewable build-out. Grid congestion is causing costly curtailments that are ultimately passed on to consumers. Birnbaum suggested scaling back wind and solar targets, arguing that renewable generation already accounts for more than 60 per cent of supply and that additional capacity brings diminishing returns without adequate grid upgrades.

EU Faces €30 Billion Grid Interconnection Gap

According to think tank Ember, the EU will need to nearly double its interconnection capacity by 2040 to 318 GW to meet decarbonisation goals, but currently faces a €30 billion shortfall in public funding. Eleven member states are projected to miss their 2030 targets, with Eastern Europe and the Nordics facing the largest infrastructure gaps. Accelerated permitting and new financing tools will be essential to avoid delays.

UK Proposes Tariffs on US HVO Imports

The UK’s Trade Remedies Authority has recommended countervailing duties on US hydrotreated vegetable oil, ranging from £257.80 to £303.56 per tonne. Although the duties are not yet retroactive, they may be revised depending on import behaviour. A parallel anti-dumping investigation was terminated after no dumping margin was identified. The proposal follows concerns about US subsidies and their impact on UK biofuel markets.

Cadent Delays HyNet Hydrogen Network Submission

Cadent has paused its planning application for the HyNet North West hydrogen pipeline, citing uncertainty regarding government timelines and subsidy mechanisms. The UK’s hydrogen transport business model is not expected until spring 2026, delaying Cadent’s final investment decision. Although environmental assessments will continue, the move could push the project’s operational date beyond 2031.

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Corporate Sustainability & Regulation

Green Claims Directive at Risk After EU Deadlock

EU negotiations on the Green Claims Directive collapsed last week, as Denmark’s Council presidency failed to secure majority support. Initially withdrawn by the Commission under political pressure and later reinstated, the bill now appears unlikely to proceed under the incoming Cypriot presidency. The directive sought to establish clear rules for environmental marketing claims and would have affected voluntary carbon credit communications. While some had hoped for clarity, others feared the directive would dampen corporate demand for credits.

EU Ombudsman Criticises Climate Law Revisions Process

The European Ombudsman has issued preliminary findings critical of the European Commission’s process for revising climate policies under the Omnibus package. The Commission was found to have failed to justify its use of urgency provisions, bypassing impact assessments and public consultations. NGOs welcomed the findings and called for a reassessment or withdrawal of the proposals. While the Ombudsman cannot enforce action, the recommendations raise questions about administrative transparency.

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Week 48 highlighted the challenges of translating climate ambition into actionable outcomes. Although COP30 failed to deliver a formal fossil fuel transition roadmap, voluntary efforts may fill the gap in the interim. Meanwhile, regulatory complexity surrounding border carbon measures, hydrogen policy, and green claims continues to slow momentum. Infrastructure gaps in energy grids and carbon markets remain persistent obstacles. As negotiations stall and policies evolve, stakeholders across the energy and climate sectors will need to navigate increasing uncertainty with measured strategies and long-term planning.