This week brought together regulatory shifts, energy security concerns, and infrastructure warnings across key markets. Germany faces increasing economic risks from low gas reserves, while energy operators across Europe are sounding the alarm over grid and fuel vulnerabilities as winter approaches. Carbon market policies are evolving, with Germany advancing CO₂ storage legislation and the US Environmental Protection Agency intervening in offset projects deemed detrimental to public safety. On the renewables front, technological innovation and policy shifts continue apace, while biofuels are gaining momentum across the Asia–Pacific region. In sustainability and regulation, the EU has delayed major reporting requirements, escalated legal pressure on Poland, and signalled a stronger push towards standardised biodiversity disclosure.

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Macroeconomics

Germany Risks €40 Billion Loss from Low Gas Stocks

A study commissioned by Uniper SE warns that Germany could face up to €40 billion in economic losses if winter temperatures are particularly cold and gas storage levels remain below optimal. With inventories at 83%, short of the EU’s preferred 90% threshold, the country’s energy buffer is weaker than anticipated. Analysts stress that higher reserves would substantially reduce the risk of recession.

Oil Prices Fall as Gaza Peace Efforts and US Inventories Weigh on Markets

Oil prices declined as progress on the Israel–Hamas hostage deal bolstered market sentiment and US crude stockpiles rose for the second consecutive week. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, analysts expect the oil market to tip into surplus. Forecasts, such as from Goldman Sachs, project Brent crude at $56 per barrel in 2026.

Britain’s Winter Energy Supply Secure Despite Tighter Gas Margins

UK energy regulators expect sufficient electricity and gas supplies this winter, despite declining North Sea output and reduced storage capacity narrowing margins. Gas demand is forecast to fall by 3% year on year, driven by greater renewable generation displacing gas-fired power.

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Carbon Markets

Germany Passes New Laws to Enable CO₂ Storage

The German cabinet has adopted two legislative measures allowing sub-seabed CO₂ storage in both domestic and international waters. These laws support Germany’s CO₂ export strategy and expand offshore carbon storage infrastructure. They also promote research into marine geoengineering. The move follows plans to integrate CCUS into decarbonisation auctions worth €6 billion, although political resistance persists over its application to gas-fired power generation.

US EPA Blocks ODS Climate Project to Prevent Halon Destruction

The US Environmental Protection Agency has intervened to stop the destruction of Halon-1301 intended for carbon credit generation, citing national safety concerns and reliance on the fire suppressant. Working with France, the agency rescinded an import permit for destruction, converting it to recycling instead. The EPA is now seeking formal responses from stakeholders involved.

California Regulator Issues Record DEBs and Credits Since 2023

California’s Air Resources Board has issued over two million California Carbon Offset (CCO) credits in the latest period, including 1.4 million tagged with Direct Environmental Benefits (DEBs), the largest DEBs issuance since May 2023. Year-to-date CCO issuance has increased by 303% compared with the same period last year.

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Renewables & Biofuels

Spain’s Grid Operator Warns of Power Risks After Voltage Swings

Spain’s grid operator, Red Eléctrica, has warned of potential blackouts following sudden voltage fluctuations linked to renewable generation during low-demand periods. The regulator will implement temporary emergency measures, including mandating reserve capacity from thermal plants. The warning comes just months after a severe blackout affected 60 million people.

Malaysia Weighs Export Duty on Waste Oil

Malaysia is considering introducing export duties on used cooking oil (UCO) and palm oil mill effluent (POME) to boost domestic value creation. The move aligns with national goals to foster a circular economy and strengthen local biofuel production. No duty rate has yet been proposed, and implementation remains under review.

Neste Launches Renewable Hydrogen Production in Rotterdam

Neste has commenced operation of the world’s largest high-temperature electrolyser at its Rotterdam refinery under the EU-funded MultiPLHY project. The solid oxide electrolysis system uses waste heat to reduce the energy demand of hydrogen production, offering a more efficient alternative to conventional methods.

Australia and Singapore Strengthen Biofuel Collaboration

Australia and Singapore have signed new agreements to advance sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and other renewable energy initiatives under their upgraded CSP 2.0 partnership. The collaboration covers SAF blending standards, feedstock trade (particularly tallow), renewable energy certificates, and transmission links such as the SunCable project.

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Corporate Sustainability & Regulation

EU Delays CSRD Sustainability Reporting for Non-EU Companies

The European Commission has announced a delay in adopting the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) for third-country companies under the CSRD. Originally scheduled for June 2024 and later postponed to 2026, adoption is now not expected before October 2027. The deferral is part of the EU’s Omnibus simplification initiative and follows pressure from the US to reduce disclosure burdens on American firms.

ISO Unveils New Biodiversity Standard

ISO has published ISO 17298, a new standard designed to help organisations assess biodiversity risks, dependencies, and performance. Intended to integrate with TNFD, the SDGs, and other ISO frameworks, it aims to guide companies in aligning biodiversity goals with broader corporate sustainability strategies.

Nestlé Withdraws from Global Dairy Methane Alliance

Nestlé has exited the Dairy Methane Action Alliance, citing progress in its own methane reduction initiatives but raising questions over the coalition’s future cohesion. The company reaffirmed its commitment to net-zero targets, but its withdrawal may weaken momentum behind dairy-specific methane transparency efforts.

EU Takes Poland to Court Over Missed Climate Plan Deadline

The European Commission has referred Poland to the European Court of Justice for failing to submit its final National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Despite prior feedback and formal warnings, Poland missed the June 2024 deadline. The Commission expressed concern over the country’s lack of ambition and transparency in its energy and climate strategy.