Global energy markets experienced heightened volatility this week, shaped by shifting oil dynamics, record solar output, and developments in carbon market frameworks. Policy interventions across the UK, EU, and Brazil propelled regulatory momentum, while technological and financing challenges continued to affect clean energy deployment. Stakeholder actions underscored both opportunities and structural risks in the transition towards decarbonisation.

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Macroeconomics

Oil Prices Decline Despite US Pressure on India

‍Brent slipped to $67.50 and WTI to $63.59 as traders focused on looming oversupply risks, despite increased US pressure on India to reduce Russian crude imports. Analysts anticipate further bearish momentum unless stricter sanctions alter market balances.

European Gas Prices Ease on Rising LNG Imports

‍European gas benchmark prices fell by 2.7% as LNG inflows into Germany and Italy increased, offsetting reduced Norwegian output caused by seasonal maintenance. While demand pressures are easing, geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on price forecasts.

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Carbon Markets

CBAM Implementation to Proceed as Scheduled

‍The European Commission confirmed CBAM will enter full implementation on 1 January 2026, dismissing speculation of delays. Updated benchmarks and anti-circumvention measures are expected in Q4 2025.

South Africa Requests CBAM Flexibility

‍South Africa appealed to the EU for the same implementation flexibility granted to the US, warning that current CBAM rules could undermine competitiveness and affect more than 422,000 domestic jobs linked to carbon-intensive exports.

Brazil Extends ETS Regulatory Phase

‍Brazil extended its regulatory development period for its emissions trading system until December 2026, pushing operationalisation to 2030, including initial free allocation phases before auctions commence.

Singapore and Rwanda Expand Article 6 Cooperation

‍Singapore signed a carbon market agreement with Rwanda to develop Article 6-compliant projects, focusing on energy access and technology-based solutions to support high-integrity credit pipelines.

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Renewables and Biofuels

UK Solar Generation Hits Record High

‍UK solar output surged 30% to a record 9.91 TWh in H1 2025, offsetting weaker wind performance and reducing reliance on gas. Domestic-scale installations also reached their highest level in over a decade.

Spain Achieves Zero Coal Generation in August

‍Spain recorded its first month without coal-fired power since 1907, driven by competitive renewables, nuclear, and gas generation, highlighting Europe’s accelerating coal phase-out.

Global Soybean Trade Sets New Record

‍Soybean meal trade is projected to reach 82 million tonnes in 2025/26, marking a third consecutive record year, supported by rising animal feed demand and competitive pricing led by Argentina, Brazil, and the US.

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Electricity and Gas Markets

EU Hydrogen Rollout Faces Setbacks

‍Multiple developers withdrew from the EU’s €3 billion hydrogen subsidy programme, citing inflexible conditions and infrastructure delays. The withdrawals jeopardise near-term capacity targets and slow the adoption of green hydrogen.

GCMD Validates Biofuel Tracer Technologies

‍Singapore’s Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation successfully validated tracer technologies for marine biofuels, enabling improved tracking of fuel authenticity and greenhouse gas reductions across supply chains.

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Corporate Sustainability and Regulation

NZBA Considers Transition to Framework Model

‍The Net Zero Banking Alliance proposed shifting from a membership-based alliance to a framework initiative, following significant member departures, including HSBC and Barclays. The move reflects fragmentation in financial-sector climate commitments.

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Environmental and Climate Policy

UK Launches Carbon Removal Business Model

‍The UK unveiled its Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) Business Model, introducing 15-year subsidy frameworks for DACCS and BECCS projects. The plan integrates voluntary carbon market incentives and targets full alignment with the UK ETS by 2029.