After dropping to their lowest weekly settlement price on Wednesday, EUAs recovered and recorded their third consecutive weekly gain on Friday, following a similar movement in Dutch TTF.

Auction volume: 12 million EUAs, 1.4 million less than last week.

Looking ahead, EUAs are expected to continue trading in line with the movements of the Dutch TTF. Moreover, EUAs have been forming higher lows and higher highs, signalling a potential uptrend. For this week, energy fundamentals are looking more bullish than previous weeks. For these reasons, we anticipate EUAs to have an overall bullish outcome.

On March 14, gas storage reached 58.34% capacity, up from 55.64% in 2023. Norwegian planned maintenance is anticipated to escalate from 2-29mcm/d of LNG offline capacity in March to 19-114mcm/d in April. Meanwhile, oil prices are on an upward trajectory, building upon last week's strength amidst escalating supply risks. Germany faced a substantial 2.29 billion euro international electricity trade deficit last year, primarily due to the closure of its final nuclear power plant and increased reliance on cheaper foreign power imports. Additionally, lower wind generation forecasts for northwest Europe in the upcoming days may potentially heighten gas-for-power demand.

Technical Analysis

EUAs have resumed their upward trajectory, aligning with the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands, currently positioned at 61.49. Bolstered by FSI, this week may witness a peak around 63.80. Should the uptrend persist and breach the channel, prices could soar to 72 EUR. However, early attainment of the channel's peak without breaching it may prompt a reversal towards 59EUR, constituting a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

You are reading our newsletter with a bit of a delay. Want to receive our new insights as soon as we publish? Sign up here: https://bit.ly/3whLXOY

AFS ENERGY B.V.

The information contained in the AFS Energy EU ETS Report, hereinafter Report, has been compiled or arrived from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, correct

sequencing or correctness. AFS Energy B.V. does not accept any liability, contingent otherwise for (i) the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness of any information provided in the Report, (ii) any decision made, or action taken by you in reliance upon any of them and (iii) any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of the Report. AFS Energy B.V. does not make any representation or warranty about the suitability of the information in the Report.

The information contained in the Report is published for the recipient's assistance but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient.